By CentralBankNews.info
Uganda’s central bank maintained its Central Bank Rate (CBR) at a neutral level of 11.5 percent but said there were potential risks of stronger inflationary pressures from currency depreciation, stronger domestic demand and higher food prices while a possible decline in foreign aid was posing a source of uncertainty for the country’s balance of payments and economy.
The Bank of Uganda (BOU), which cut its CBR rate by 50 basis points in 2013, cut its forecast for core inflation to 4-5 percent over the next few months, down from February’s forecast of 5-6 percent in the first half of 2014, but added that inflation was then expected to rise to between 5.5 percent and 6.5 percent over the next 12 months.
Uganda’s headline inflation rate eased to 6.7 percent in February from January’s 6.9 percent while core inflation, which excludes food, energy and utilities, fell to 3.7 percent in February from 4.6 percent. The BOU attributed the lower inflation rate to a 7.0 percent appreciation of the shilling in the 12 months to 2014.
After strengthening last year, Uganda’s shilling was hit last week after foreign aid donors, including the World Bank, withheld or threatened to withhold aid in reaction to new legislation that toughens the punishment for homosexuals.
The drop in the shilling started last Wednesday with dealers saying the central bank had intervened and sold dollars to stop the decline. On Thursday the central bank continued to support the shilling and then on Friday the central bank confirmed it was selling foreign currency.
Late on Thursday the World Bank said it was postponing a US$ 90 million loan for Uganda’s health system and Sweden’s finance minster then on Friday said the law would make it hard to continue funding projects. Denmark and Norway have already withheld aid while the United States, the country’s biggest donor, is reviewing its aid for health projects.
The shilling fell to 2,534.9 to the U.S. dollar last Friday, down 2.8 percent from the previous week’s close, but rose slightly this week to trade around 2,523 today, largely unchanged from 2,525 end-2013.
Despite uncertainty surrounding foreign aid, the central bank said it expects Uganda’s economy to be “relatively buoyant” in the 2013/14 fiscal year, which began on July 1, due to fiscal stimulus, a strengthening global environment, strong inflows of foreign direct investment and household consumption.
“However, there are risks to this growth outlook emanating from weak bank credit growth,” the BOU said.
Last month the BOU forecast growth in 2013/14 of 6.0 to 6.5 percent and said banks’ credit to households had risen by 38 percent in December.
Uganda’s Gross Domestic Product contracted by 0.6 percent in the third calendar quarter from the second quarter for annual growth of 2.2 percent, down from growth of 5.8 percent in the second quarter.
Yesterday the U.S. Dollar Tried to Return Some Lost Positions
The EURUSD Tested Support At 1.3720
Being under pressure due to the critical situation in Ukraine, the EURUSD pair, opened by the downward gap, continued declining and reached the support around the level of 1.3720. Here demand for the euro remains owing to which its rate was able to rebound to 1.3767. Until the ECB announces its decision and Mario Draghi holds the press-conference, the pair could trade within the range, limited by the levels of 1.3720 and 1.3823. Loss of the current support will lead to testing the 1.3643 level.
The GBPUSD Drops Again
The GBPUSD bulls did not attack the 68th figure yesterday. Instead of this the pair reversed, went down and reached 1.6652, and in the Tuesday’s Asian session — 1.6640, where a 10-day MA traversed. Here the pound continues to be bought and it is trying to rise again. The resumption above 1.6700 will lead to testing 1.6750, loss of 1.6640 — to testing 1.6600. While the pair is trading above 1.6640—1.6600, the chances to test the 68th figure remain.
Downside Risks of the USDCHF Remain
Yesterday, the USDCHF traded almost on the spot between the levels of 0.8782 and 0.8820. Later the pair managed to move slightly higher and test the 0.8842 level. Nevertheless, a negative sentiment remains and a decline of the dollar can resume at any time. Technically, the pair should rise higher 0.8900—0.8930 in order to weaken the bearish momentum. Until then downside risks to 0.8568 will remain.
The USDJPY Above 101.59 Again
The USDJPY bears failed to develop a downward trend yesterday. Moreover, they could not consolidate below 101.59. During the whole day the pair traded in a tight range, limited by the levels of 101.20 and 101.59. Today, in the Asian trading session the dollar has broken resistance and rose to 101.59. It is early to speak about uptrend resumption. The dollar should rise above 102.83 to do it, but if it resumes higher, the bearish momentum will be somewhat weaker. Another drop lower will lead to testing 100.68.
WTI Climbs Near Five-Month High; Russia Orders Troops To Return
Prices for the North American West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed near its highest price since September, while Brent crude remained steady as Russia ordered troops to return to Base, according to the Russian news agencies.
Crude prices traded higher on Monday, after Ukraine its army in response to Russia sending its troops to take control of the Crimea peninsula.
Meanwhile, distillate stockpiles, including heating oil and diesel, probably declined by 1 million barrels in the last week, according to analysts before the Energy Information Administration report due on Wednesday.
The West Texas Intermediate Crude for April delivery was at 0.82% to $104.06 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Tuesday, the highest level since September.
While Brent crude for April settlement dropped below $111 per barrel on Tuesday on the ICE Future Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of $6.49 to WTI.
WTI – US Crude Supplies
The North American WTI climbed 5.2% higher in the previous month as the freezing weather in the US boosted the demand for heating fuels and crude stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma; the delivery point for the crude.
According to analysts, the US crude inventories probably added 1.15 million barrels in the week ending February 28 before the Energy Information Administration (EIA) report. While Gasoline supplies are forecasted to have dropped by 1 million.
A separate stockpiles report from the American Petroleum Institute is expected to be released later in the day.
Ukraine Crises
On Monday, the crises between Ukraine and Russia; the world’s biggest energy exporter, escalated when the Russian President Vladimir Putin gave the Ukrainian troops the ultimatum to surrender.
The move was broadly condemned by western leaders, as the US Secretary of State John Kerry arrived Kiev on Monday and threatened Russia with visa bans, sanctions, trade restrictions and to remove Russia from the G8.
However, tensions in the markets were eased after the Russian President ordered troops to return to base, the Russian news agencies quoted the Kremlin spokesman’s speech on Tuesday.
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The post WTI Climbs Near Five-Month High; Russia Orders Troops To Return appeared first on | HY Markets Official blog.
Article provided by HY Markets Forex Blog
Gold Futures Slides From Four-Month High
Gold prices were seen trading lower on Tuesday after the news that Russia had halted its military and asked its troops to return back to base.
Gold futures for April delivery lost 0.78% to $1,339.80 an ounce on the Comex in New York at the time of writing. While futures for Silver declined 0.96% to $21.260 an ounce.
Gold – Ukraine Crises
On Monday, the crises between Ukraine and Russia escalated when the Russian President Vladimir Putin gave the Ukrainian troops the ultimatum to surrender.
Over the weekend, the Russian president said he had the right to raid his neighbor country Ukraine, to protect Russian citizens and interests in Ukraine.
The move was broadly condemned by western leaders, as the US Secretary of State John Kerry arrived Kiev on Monday and threatened Russia with visa bans, sanctions, trade restrictions and to remove Russia from the G8.
However, tensions in the markets were eased after the Russian President ordered troops that took part in a military exercises during the week to return to base, the Russian news agencies quoted the Kremlin spokesman’s speech on Tuesday.
The move stirred a wave of risk-aversion on the markets, with precious metals slowly rising, as gold futures rose 2.17% an ounce on Monday.
Hedge Funds
Hedge funds bullish bets were boosted by 25% to 113,911 contracts in the week ending February 25, the highest since December 2012, Commodity Futures Trading Commission reports revealed.
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Daily Technical Strategist on EURUSD
EURUSD: Halts Decline, Recovers Higher.
EURUSD: With EUR halting its Monday losses and triggering a recovery, the challenge is for it to retake the 1.3772 level broken during Monday trading. If eventually this is seen, further gains could occur towards the 1.3824 level, its Feb 28 2014 high. Above here will pave the way for a run at the 1.3893 level, its Dec 27 2013 high. A turn above here will expose the 1.3950 level and next the 1.4000 level. On the downside, support lies at the 1.3720 level with a violation of here targeting the 1.3698 level, its Feb 28 2014 low where a break will turn focus to the 1.3642 level , its psycho level. A cut through here will aim at the 1.3561 level, its Feb 12 2014 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the upside in the medium term.
Article by www.fxtechstrategy.com
Wave Analysis 04.03.2014 (DJIA Index, Crude Oil)
Article By RoboForex.com
Analysis for March 4th, 2014
DJIA Index
It looks like Index is still being corrected; wave [2] is taking the form of flat pattern inside wave [2]. In the near term, price may continue falling down inside wave (C) and break minimum of wave (A).
More detailed wave structure is shown on H1 chart. It looks like Index is forming diagonal triangle pattern inside wave (C). On minor wave level, price completed the second wave and is expected to start the third one, which may take the form of zigzag pattern.
Crude Oil
Oil continues moving inside ascending trend. Yesterday, market reached my Take Profit, and I’m keeping my buy order. Instrument is expected to continue forming ascending impulse inside wave C in the nearest future.
As we can see at the H1 chart, Oil is completing the fourth wave. Earlier, price extended the third wave: it formed diagonal triangle pattern inside its fifth wave. Instrument is expected to start new ascending movement inside wave (5) of [5] during the day.
RoboForex Analytical Department
Article By RoboForex.com
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 04.03.2014 (EUR/USD, USD/CHF)
Article By RoboForex.com
Analysis for March 4th, 2014
EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”
After reaching the first group of fibo-levels, Eurodollar started new correction. Probably, right now market is starting growing up towards the next target, which is at level of 1.3875. If pair rebounds from it, I may start selling.
As we can see at H1 chart, pair rebounded from local level of 50%. Earlier, price reached its target at level of 1.38 right inside temporary fibo-zone. Probably, market may reach upper levels by the end of this week.
USD CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”
Franc rebounded from lower border of its target area and right now is being corrected. However, main trend is still bearish and price may yet continue falling down. Main target is near several fibo-levels at 0.8715.
At H1 chart we can see, that price reached channel’s lower border and started new correction. Possibly, market may test local level of 50% in the nearest future. If price rebounds from it, pair may start new descending movement.
RoboForex Analytical Department
Article By RoboForex.com
Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
Warren Buffett Hides 10 Clues in Shareholders’ Letter
On Saturday morning, Warren Buffett released his latest annual letter to shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.B).
Just like his last 50 or so, it’s a must-read for every investor.
Not only does it contain nuggets of timeless investing wisdom, but thanks to Berkshire’s sprawling enterprise – spanning from railroads, utilities, and homebuilders to insurance, sneakers, and ketchup – it also contains timely revelations into the current state of the economy and the market.
Perhaps the most shocking revelation of all is the fact that the Oracle of Omaha was upstaged by both potential heirs to his investment management throne…
“In a year in which most equity managers found it impossible to outperform the S&P 500, both Todd Combs and Ted Weschler handily did so… I must again confess that their investments outperformed mine. (Charlie says I should add ‘by a lot’).”
So has Buffett lost his Midas touch?
Hardly! Even if we include his “underwhelming” performance in 2013 in relation to his protégés, Buffett has increased Berkshire’s book value at a staggering rate of 19.7% compounded annually over the last 49 years.
I highly doubt Mr. Combs, Mr. Weschler, or any of us will ever be able to make a similar boast. So we all stand to learn a thing or two from Mr. Buffett.
With that in mind, here’s a rundown on the 10 most shocking and important revelations from this year’s letter…
~Buffett Shocker #1: Small Caps Are Where It’s At!
If you continue to refuse to take my advice to keep betting on small caps because of their superior fundamentals, consider Warren Buffett’s words of wisdom: “Our many dozens of smaller non-insurance businesses earned $4.7 billion pre-tax last year, up from $3.9 billion in 2012. Here, too, we expect further gains in 2014.”
~Buffett Shocker #2: The End of America is NOT Nigh!
Ever since the Great Recession, fearmongers attempted to convince us that the era of American dominance is over, that our capitalistic system is teetering on the brink of utter and complete destruction.
Buffett’s response? Fat chance!
Or in his words, “Could anyone really believe the earth was going to swallow up the incredible productive assets and unlimited human ingenuity existing in America?”
I certainly can’t.
If you prefer to keep things on a more quantitative level, Buffett asks, “Who has ever benefited during the past 237 years by betting against America?”
I can’t think of anyone, can you?
Add it all up, and Buffett contends that “America’s best days lie ahead.” (I agree.)
And he plans to put his money where his mouth is, too. “Though we invest abroad, as well, the mother lode of opportunity resides in America.”
We’d be well served to do the same. Unless, of course, you’re convinced it’ll be different this time…
~Buffett Shocker #3: Tenths of a Percent Matter, Too
Too often we get caught up trying to uncover big winners – investments that go up hundreds and hundreds of percent. But Buffett reminds us not to overlook tenths of a percent…
“Ponder this math: For the four companies in aggregate [American Express, Coca-Cola, IBM and Wells Fargo], each increase of one-tenth of a percent in our share of their equity raises Berkshire’s share of their annual earnings by $50 million.”
The corollary for individual investors comes in with expenses. Reduce them, even by a few tenths of a percent over time, and the gains add up.
Or as Buffett puts it later in his letter (emphasis mine), “The ‘know-nothing’ investor who both diversifies and keeps his costs minimal is virtually certain to get satisfactory results.”
~Buffett Shocker #4: Never Be Fully Invested
Even with cash yielding next to nothing, Buffett recommends keeping a stockpile on hand.
Why? So you can put it to work to earn an above-average return when the opportunity presents itself.
Or in his words, “Tumbling markets can be helpful to the true investor if he has cash available when prices get far out of line with values. A climate of fear is your friend when investing; a euphoric world is your enemy.”
~Buffett Shocker #5: Don’t Ignore Your Critics… Embrace Them!
As I’ve warned before, we’re prone to confirmatory bias. That is, only seeking out information that jives with our own beliefs. To truly be successful investors, we need to learn to embrace contradictory viewpoints.
Buffett’s actions reveal that he agrees. When writing about the upcoming shareholder meeting, he said, “We will again have a credentialed bear on Berkshire. We would like to hear from applicants who are short Berkshire.”
Why bother? Because entertaining critics’ opinions and analysis serves a vital purpose…
It either strengthens our convictions on our investment, leading us to increase our stake and earn larger returns. Or, more importantly, it reveals the error of our own analysis, allowing us to exit the position without suffering a major loss.
Stay tuned for tomorrow’s column, where I’ll share five more shocking revelations from Warren Buffett.
Ahead of the tape,
Louis Basenese
The post Warren Buffett Hides 10 Clues in Shareholders’ Letter appeared first on Wall Street Daily.
Article By WallStreetDaily.com
Original Article: Warren Buffett Hides 10 Clues in Shareholders’ Letter
NZD/USD Forecast March 3-7
Article by Investazor.com
The bulls had the upper hand last week and managed to push higher the NZDUSD quotation, gaining almost 100 pips. The indicators for the New Zeeland economy really helped this time and posted a better than expected trade balance surplus (306 million NZD). The ANZ Business Confidence continued the pleasant surprises with an improvement from 64.1 to 70.8 levels. Also, at the beginning of the week the data from the US were still weak, giving NZDUSD a solid advance.
Economic Calendar
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (8:15 GTM)-Wednesday. This data provides an early look at employment growth, usually two days ahead of NFP, for the labor market from the United States.
Non-Farm Payrolls (8:30 GTM)-Friday. It measures the change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. This is a vital economic indicator as job creation is the major target of the Federal Reserve.
Taking into account that this week we won’t have any macroeconomic data from New Zeeland, the indicators which will have the greatest impact are the ADP report and the NFP from the US labor market.
Technical view
NZDUSD, Daily
Support: 0.8240, 0.8050
Resistance:
The post NZD/USD Forecast March 3-7 appeared first on investazor.com.
GBPUSD failed to break above 1.6822 resistance
GBPUSD failed to break above 1.6822 resistance and stayed in the trading range between 1.6582 and 1.6822. As long as 1.6582 support holds, the price action in the range could be treated as consolidation of the uptrend from 1.6252, another rise towards 1.7000 could be expected after consolidation. On the downside, a breakdown below 1.6582 support will indicate that lengthier consolidation of the longer term uptrend from 1.4813 (Jul 9, 2013) is underway, then deeper decline to 1.6400 area could be seen.
Provided by ForexCycle.com
