InvestMacro Forex News

USDJPY remains in uptrend from 101.20, the fall from 103.76 could be treated as consolidation of the uptrend. Range trading between 102.60 and 103.76 would likely be seen. Support is at 102.60, as long as this level holds, another rise could be expected, and next target would be at 104.50 area. Only break below 102.60 support will signal completion of the uptrend from 101.20, then the following downward movement could bring price back towards 98.00.

Provided by ForexCycle.com

By MoneyMorning.com.au

Immersive technology is all around us. It’s still very early days, but soon immersive tech will be such a part of your day, you’ll forget what life was like before it.

Let me paint a picture for you.

You’re sitting on the couch at home. The TV is on. Let’s say you’ve got a decent size smart TV. An LED or something like that and let’s say you’re watching the footy.

So the action is on. It’s a pretty normal TV experience so far. Except outside of the dimensions of the screen, something else is happening. On the surrounding wall, you can see player stats, and real-time player tracking.

This information covers your entire wall. And as you glance on the arm of the couch you see that it’s actually a touch pad. Not a real one, but like a projected image of a touch pad on the arm of your couch. Around that image are numbers, and controls. Basically everything you need to control the TV and the information surrounding it.

Later that night after the footy, a documentary comes on. Something with David Attenborough narrating. Maybe the plains of the Serengeti or something like that.

There’s the TV feed that you see on the TV, but you feel more immersed in this doco for some reason. That’s because your entire room now looks like the plains of the Serengeti. The grassy knoll from which the lions stalk their prey extends across the entire wall. You look to the ceiling and can see the clear blue sky and the piercing light from the sun.

Over to your left a zebra casually walks towards the kitchen door. And then like  you’re in some giant bubble, the whole room moves with the action as the lion hunts the zebra.

You aren’t watching TV anymore, you’re immersed in it.

You might think the above sounds amazing. And it is. However, you might also be thinking I’ve had a few too much to drink over the weekend and that’s just crazy talk.

Well it’s not.

SurroundWeb Surrounds You With…The Web

As I’ve said before immersive tech is much closer than you think. And it’s because of all the sensors, processors, cameras and microchips that make it all happen.

Oh did I forget that there are companies that can do what I just described, right now?

Microsoft [NASDAQ:MSFT] last year demonstrated to the world their IllumiRoom. This was a projector that made the boundaries of your gaming console (specifically the Xbox) extend beyond the TV screen.

Well Microsoft have just taken it one step further with SurroundWeb.

The SurroundWeb research report from Microsoft can be viewed in full here.

But in short this is the part of the abstract that caught my attention:

‘We introduce SurroundWeb, the first least-privilege platform for immersive room experiences. SurroundWeb is a “3D Browser” that gives web pages the ability to display across multiple surfaces in a room, adapt their appearance to objects to present in that room, and interact using natural user input.‘

Basically Microsoft research just described immersive tech.

You might say they only describe web pages in that extract. True, but last time I checked I can watch Netflix, BBC, ABC iView and others all through web pages.

But it’s not just tech giants like Microsoft developing this kind of technology. Because there’s more to something like SurroundWeb than the brand name.

In order for something like that to work you need countless amounts of processors, sensors, cameras and GPUs.

And someone has to make all that technology. Here’s the thing, Microsoft doesn’t make a lot of it. But there are some pioneering companies that do. Some of these companies I’ve already recognised and have tipped for our Revolutionary Tech Investor subscribers.

Of course I can’t name them here, because our RTI subscribers pay good money for that privilege. But what I can tell you is that the opportunities that immersive tech presents are enormous.

The fact is Microsoft is developing this kind of tech now. And right now it’s applicable to rooms. But technology is moving forward at an astounding rate. It’s all based on a new law that’s shifted the very fundamentals of technology.

And it means that technology is using other technology to make new technology. It might sound a bit funny but it’s going to open up more opportunity in the next 10 years than the previous 250 years.

Microsoft’s SurroundWeb is just the beginning. Soon it will be your living room, kitchen surfaces, bedroom…your whole house that’s interactive.

Then you’ll notice your digital life blends seamlessly and is frictionless with your car. Then your office. And finally your entire day-to-day life.

This is how technology progresses, and it happens quickly. So quickly you barely notice it. It’s almost invisible to you. And that’s what good technology does, it improves your life in ways that you don’t realise. Then one day you look back and wonder, how did we ever manage before all this?

Regards,
Sam Volkering+

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By MoneyMorning.com.au

By Elliott Wave International

Editor’s note: You’ll find a text version of this article below the video.

Two economic reports hit the newswires Thursday morning (March 6). Both were important, yet each one had the opposite implication for the trend.

The market chose one report over the other, and the question is, why — and what can we learn from that?

Both reports came out at the same time, 8:30 Eastern on Thursday morning. One was from Europe, where the European Central Bank said that they, “…decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged.” That suggested that the European economy was getting stronger.

The second report was from the United States, where “…the weekly applications for jobless benefits fell to a three month low.” That also was a sign of economic improvement.

Immediately after, the euro jumped to a new high for the year against the U.S. dollar. But why did the euro gain, and not the dollar? After all, the news from the US was also positive?

The answer comes down to understanding market psychology. All things being equal, it’s the bias of the traders that determines the market’s fate. The question is, how do you know what traders are thinking?

That’s where Elliott wave analysis comes in. Wave patterns in price charts reflect the struggle between the bulls and the bears. So by tracking wave patterns, you can anticipate which side will ultimately win.

Let’s take a look at what the waves were saying before the surge in the euro on Thursday. The day before, our Currency Pro Service told subscribers that the euro was forming a wave pattern called a triangle.

A triangle is pattern that moves against the primary trend, so when it ends, the old trend resumes — in this case, up. On Wednesday, that allowed us to make a very clear forecast for the euro-dollar:

EURUSD

[Posted On:] March 05, 2014 03:27 PM

From nearby levels further consolidation through waves D and E [of the unfolding triangle] should set the stage for a thrust above 1.3824.

On Thursday morning, not only did the euro hit its Elliott wave target, it actually went as high as 50 points above it.

The lesson here is obvious. In the world of finance, where every day you have multiple news reports competing for your attention, focusing on market psychology goes a long way.

Free 14-page eBook Trading Forex: How the Elliott Wave Principle Can Boost Your Forex Success Learn how to apply Elliott wave analysis to your markets. Elliott Wave International’s Senior Currency Strategist Jim Martens pulls from 25+ years of experience using Elliott wave analysis to show how you can put the power of the Wave Principle to work in your forex trading. Download your free 14-page eBook now >>

Article by Investazor.com

Last week was pretty intense and seemed like a roller coaster of emotions for the markets. The week started with the escalation of the Crimean conflict and USDJPY had a slide just to soar for the reminder of the week after Vladimir Putin declared that there is no immediate need to invade Ukraine. As a result, safe haven assets took a blow and the US dollar gained, managing to break the 103 level and to send the USDJPY quotation to 103.20.

Besides the geopolitical conflict form Ukraine, the macroeconomic data favored the US economy as last week was poor in economic indicators for the Japanese economy, so the headline was the NFP indicator, which surprised in a good way the investors for the first time in the last three months. The improvement for the US labor market was signaled by the unemployment claims with a day before the NFP when the jobless claims were reported at a three months low.

Economic Calendar

Current Account (7:50 GMT)-Sunday. This indicator measures the difference in value between imported and exported goods, services, income flows and unilateral transfers during the reported month. It is a medium impact indicator, but you should pay attention at it because last month was registered the widest deficit on record for the Nippon economy and for this month it is forecast to widen even more.

Final GDP q/q (7:50 GMT)-Sunday. Basically, it measures the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is very important as it is released quarterly and it is considered the broadest measure of economic health. The last two releases were below expectations, so it will be interesting to watch which it will be the outcome this time.

The post USD/JPY Forecast March 10-14 appeared first on investazor.com.

Article by Investazor.com

Even though there was not any major macro publication from New Zeeland economy and in spite of the positive macro data from the American economy, NZDUSD had a very good week and hit a four month high. This could be explained by the risk appetite law which states that when the US dollar gets stronger, investors raise their risk appetite and start to sell American dollars and buy more risky currencies, like NZD for example. Another reason is the speculation that appeared in the markets which suggests that the central bank would raise the official cash rate next week.

Economic Calendar

Manufacturing Sales q/q (5:45 GTM)-Sunday. This indicator is released quarterly and measures the change in the total value of sales at the manufacturing level. Even though it is a low impact indicator, you should pay attention at it as last time produced a big pleasant surprise with a reading of 4.7%.

REINZ HPI m/m (Tentative)-Monday. It is an important indicator for the real-estate sector which measures the change in the selling price of all homes. This is why it is considered a leading indicator for the housing industry’s health. In the last two months it was published in the negative territory.

The post NZD/USD Forecast March 10-14 appeared first on investazor.com.

By Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst, Casey Research

Now that it appears clear the bottom is in for gold, it’s time to stop fretting about how low prices will drop and how long the correction will last—and start looking at how high they’ll go and when they’ll get there.

When viewing the gold market from a historical perspective, one thing that’s clear is that the junior mining stocks tend to fluctuate between extreme boom and bust cycles. As a group, they’ll double in price, then crash by 75%… then double or triple or even quadruple again, only to crash 90%. Boom, bust, repeat.

Given that we just completed a major bust cycle—and not just any bust cycle, but one of the harshest on record, according to many veteran insiders—the setup for a major rally in gold stocks is right in front of us.

This may sound sensationalistic, but based on past historical patterns and where we think gold prices are headed, the odds are high that, on average, gold producers will trade in the $200 per share range before the next cycle is over. With most of them currently trading between $20 and $40, the returns could be stupendous. And the percentage returns of the typical junior will be greater by an order of magnitude, providing life-changing gains to smart investors.

What you’re about to see are historical returns of both producers and juniors during three separate boom cycles. These are factual returns; they are not hypothetical. And if you accept the fact that this market moves in cycles, you know it’s about to happen again.

Gold had a spectacular climb in 1979-1980, and gold stocks in general gave a staggering performance at that time—many of them becoming 10-baggers (1,000% gains and more). While this is a well-known fact, few researchers have bothered to identify exact returns from specific companies during this era.

Digging up hard data from before the mid-1980s, especially for the junior explorers, is difficult because the information wasn’t computerized at the time. So I sent my nephew Grant to the library to view the Wall Street Journal on microfiche. We also include information we’ve had from Scott Hunter of Haywood Securities; Larry Page, then-president of the Manex Resource Group; and the dusty archives at the Northern Miner.

Note: This means our tables, while accurate, are not at all comprehensive.

Let’s get started…

The Quintessential Bull Market: 1979-1980

The granddaddy of gold bull cycles occurred during the 1970s, culminating in an unabashed mania in 1979 and 1980. Gold peaked at $850 an ounce on January 21, 1980, a rise of 276% from the beginning of 1979. (Yes, the price of gold on the last trading day of 1978 was a mere $226 an ounce.)

Here’s a sampling of gold producer stock prices from this era. What you’ll notice in addition to the amazing returns is that gold stocks didn’t peak until nine months after gold did.

Today, GDX is selling for $26.05 (as of February 26, 2014); if it mimicked the average 289.5% return, the price would reach $101.46.

Keep in mind, though, that our data measures the exact top of each company’s price. Most investors, of course, don’t sell at the very peak. If we were to able to grab, say, 80% of the climb, that’s still a return of 231.6%.

Here’s a sampling of how some successful junior gold stocks performed in the same period, along with the month each of them peaked.

If you had bought a reasonably diversified portfolio of top-performing gold juniors prior to 1979, your initial investment could have grown 23 times in just two years. If you had managed to grab 80% of that move, your gains would still have been over 1,850%.

This means a junior priced at $0.50 today that captured the average gain from this boom would sell for $12 at the top, or $9.75 at 80%. If you own ten juniors, imagine just one of them matching Copper Lake’s better than 100-bagger performance.

Here’s what returns of this magnitude could mean to you. Let’s say your portfolio includes $10,000 in gold juniors that yield spectacular gains such as the above. If the next boom cycle matches the 1979-1980 pattern, your portfolio could be worth $241,370 at its peak… or about $195,000 if you exit at 80% of the top prices.

Note that this does require that you sell to realize your profits. If you don’t take the money and run at some point, you may end up with little more than tears to fill an empty beer mug. In the subsequent bust cycle, many junior gold stocks, including some in the above list, dried up and blew away. Investors who held on to the bitter end not only saw all their gains evaporate, but lost their entire investments.

You have to play the cycle.

Returns from that era have been written about before, so I can hear some investors saying, “Yeah, but that only happened once.”

Au contraire. Read on…

The Hemlo Rally of 1981-1983

Many investors don’t know that there have been several bull cycles in gold and gold stocks since the 1979-1980 period.

Ironically, gold was flat during the two years of the Hemlo rally. But something else ignited a bull market. Discovery. Here’s how it happened…

Back in the day, most exploration was done by teams from the major producers. But because of lagging gold prices and the resulting need to cut overhead, they began to slash their exploration budgets, unleashing a swarm of experienced geologists armed with the knowledge of high-potential mineral targets they’d explored while working for the majors. Many formed their own companies and went after these targets.

This led to a series of spectacular discoveries, the first of which occurred in mid-1982, when Golden Sceptre and Goliath Gold discovered the Golden Giant deposit in the Hemlo area of eastern Canada. Gold prices rallied that summer, setting off a mini bull market that lasted until the following May. The public got involved, and as you can see, the results were impressive for such a short period of time.

Gold producers, on average, returned over 70% on investors’ money during this period. While these aren’t the same spectacular gains from just a few years earlier, keep in mind they occurred over only about 12 months’ time. This would be akin to a $20 gold stock soaring to $34.50 by this time next year, just because it’s located in a significant discovery area.

Once again, it was the juniors that brought the dazzling returns.

The average return for these junior gold stocks that had a direct interest in the Hemlo area exceeded a whopping 4,000%.

This is especially impressive when you realize that it occurred without the gold stock industry as a whole participating. This tells us that a big discovery can lead to enormous gains, even if the industry as a whole is flat.

In other words, we have historical precedence that humongous returns are possible without a mania, by owning stocks with direct exposure to a discovery area. There are numerous examples of this in the past ten years, as any longtime reader of the International Speculator can attest.

By May 1983, roughly a year after it started, gold prices started back down again, spelling the end of that cycle—another reminder that one must sell to realize a profit.

The Roaring ’90s

By the time the ’90s rolled around, many junior exploration companies had acquired the “intellectual capital” they needed from the majors. Another series of gold discoveries in the mid-1990s set off one of the most stunning bull markets in the current generation.

Companies with big discoveries included Diamet, Diamond Fields, and Arequipa. This was also the time of the famous Bre-X scandal, a company that appeared to have made a stupendous discovery, but that was later found to have been “salting” its drill data (cheating).

By the summer of ’96, these discoveries had sparked another bull cycle, and companies with little more than a few drill holes were selling for $20 a share.

The table below, which includes some of the better-known names of the day, is worth the proverbial thousand words. The average producer more than tripled investors’ money during this period. Once again, these gains occurred in a relatively short period of time, in this case inside of two years.

Here’s how some of the juniors performed. And if you’re the kind of investor with the courage to buy low and the discipline to sell during a frenzy, it can be worth a million dollars. Hold on to your hat.

Many analysts refer to the 1970s bull market as the granddaddy of them all—and to a certain extent it was—but you’ll notice that the average return of these stocks during the late ’90s bull exceeds what the juniors did in the 1979-1980 boom.

This is akin to that $0.50 junior stock today reaching $19.86… or $16, if you snag 80% of the move. A $10,000 portfolio with similar returns would grow to over $397,000 (or over $319,000 on 80%).

Gold Stocks and Depression

Those of you in the deflation camp may dismiss all this because you’re convinced the Great Deflation is ahead. Fair enough. But you’d be wrong to assume gold stocks can’t do well in that environment.

Take a look at the returns of the two largest producers in the US and Canada, respectively, during the Great Depression of the 1930s, a period that saw significant price deflation.

During a period of soup lines, crashing stock markets, and a fixed gold price, large gold producers handed investors five and six times their money in four years. If deflation “wins,” we still think gold equity investors can, too.

How to Capitalize on This Cycle

History shows that precious metals stocks move in cycles. We’ve now completed a major bust cycle and, we believe, are on the cusp of a tremendous boom. The only way to make the kind of money outlined above is to buy before the boom is in full swing. That’s now. For most readers, this is literally a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.

As you can see above, there can be great variation among the returns of the companies. That’s why, even if you believe we’re destined for an “all-boats-rise” scenario, you still want to own the better companies.

My colleague Louis James, Casey’s chief metals and mining investment strategist, has identified the nine junior mining stocks that are most likely to become 10-baggers this year in their special report, the 10-Bagger List for 2014. Read more here.

EURUSD: Having closed strongly higher for a fourth week in a row, further bullish offensive is likely. As long as it can trade and hold above the 1.3824 level, we look for the pair to strengthen further towards the 1.3914 level where a violation will turn attention to the 1.3950 level and then the 1.4000 level, its psycho level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Conversely, support lies at the 1.3824 level where a break will expose the 1.3772 level. Further down, support lies at the 1.3685 level followed by the 1.3600 level and then the 1.3561 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the upside on further recovery.

Article by www.fxtechstrategy.com

By CentralBankNews.info
    Swift action by central banks in emerging market helped dampen financial market turbulence in January but higher interest rates could put strains on overextended borrowers, making it critical to strengthen financial systems in those countries, said Cladio Borio of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

    Emerging markets in January were hit by a second episode of market turbulence in less than a year but intervention in foreign exchange markets and resolute rate rises by the central banks in India, South Africa and Turkey helped ease strains after investors started pulling out funds from emerging markets.

By CentralBankNews.info
    The higher cost of wholesale funding for insured banks in the United States following Dodd-Frank legislation had the unintended effect of leaving non-US banks holding 43 percent of reserves at the Federal Reserve, much higher than their 13 percent share of U.S. banking assets, according to an article in the latest quarterly review by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).
    In a detective-like fashion, BIS economists Robert McCauley and Patrick McGuire follow the flow of money across borders and conclude that non-U.S. banks’ branches used funds from the rest of the world to take up $958 billion of the Fed’s $2.249 trillion in reserves that were created to fund its purchase of Treasury and mortgage bonds as part of its extraordinary monetary stimulus.
    The reason that non-U.S. banks have ended up with such a disproportionate share of Fed reserves is due to legislation following the global financial crises aimed at forcing banks to pay for an increase in the size of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) fund.
    An FDIC charge was levied on short-term wholesale bank funding, one of the factors that had contributed to systemic instability during the financial crises. But despite concern that such a charge could result in regulatory arbitrage if it wasn’t internationally coordinated, the charge was only applied to U.S. banks that operate with FDIC insurance.
    This put U.S. banks at a competitive disadvantage in raising wholesale funding in comparison to non-U.S. banks that don’t have FDIC insurance. The new FDIC charge added to the approximate 10 basis points cost of wholesale funding so it was not profitable enough to park the funds at the Fed at 25 basis points.
    From a monetary policy perspective, it might not matter which banks hold the Fed’s liabilities.
    But it matters from a regulatory perspective in a world where regulations vary between jurisdictions because it has induced massive changes in major banks’ international funding patterns and balance sheets.
    “Counter to the popular metaphor that the Fed’s bond buying represented an injection of liquidity that could flow out of the United States, non-US banks’ branches brought dollar funds into the United States,” wrote McCauley and McGuire.
    Which banks hold reserves at the Fed may also matter when the Fed at some points starts to tighten its policy and reduces its bond portfolio, which now exceeds $4.1 trillion.
    The Fed has been experimenting with reverse repurchases as a new operational tool that could reduce bank’s $2.5 trillion claim on it even as it maintains its portfolio of bonds. In a reverse repo, the Fed borrows overnight from cash-rich counter parties, like mutual funds, against its own portfolio of bonds.
    This policy instrument will help drain banks’ holdings of excess reserves at the Fed and for non-U.S. banks it would reduce the profit they have been making on a very low-risk trade that involved parking wholesale funds at the Fed.
    McCauley and McGuire pose the question of whether this would trigger a reversal of the recent flow of funds into the U.S. Since the global financial crises, foreign banks have more than doubled their exposure to the U.S. official sector to $1.75 trillion.
    “Just as the uptake of claims on the Fed by branches of banks headquartered outside the United States led to large changes in the global dollar flow of funds, so too could the Fed’s draining of its excess reserves,” they said.
    McCauley is senior adviser in the BIS Monetary and Economic Department, having worked as chief BIS representative for Asia and the Pacific in BIS’ Hong Kong office. Prior to joining the BIS, McCauley worked at the New York Fed for 13 years, for the Joint Economic Committee of U.S. Congress and taught international finance at the University of Chicago.
    McGuire is head of the BIS-hosted International Data Hub, which oversees the collection and analysis of global banking data for supervisory authorities. He joined BIS in 2002 and worked in the monetary and economic department’s financial institutions and financial markets section.
   
    Click to read the March 2014 issue of the BIS Quarterly Review.
 
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By CentralBankNews.info
    The final verdict on the usefulness of forward guidance will depend on how central banks navigate the final stages of the economic recovery and whether they can return to normal monetary policy after years of extraordinary accommodation, according to an article in the latest quarterly review by the Bank for International Settlement (BIS).
    In a roundup of the evidence on the effectiveness of forward guidance, two BIS economists find reduced volatility of near-term expectations about future policy rates, suggesting that major central banks – the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank – have been successful in clarifying their intentions to financial markets and investors.
    But in the longer term, the effects on interest rates and the responsiveness of financial markets is more mixed and not very systematic in one direction or the other, according to Andrew Filardo, head of monetary policy at the BIS, and Boris Hofmann, senior BIS economist.
    “At the same time, the forward guidance raises a number of significant challenges. How they are managed will ultimately determine the enduring value of this communication tool,” they conclude.
    Forward guidance has been a key element of monetary policy at the zero lower bound since 2008, with the major central banks employing various forms of guidance about future policy.
     Guidance has taken various forms: Qualitative, as used by the ECB; calendar-based, as used by the Fed from 2011 to 2012; or threshold-based, as currently used by the BOJ.
    The BOJ was the first major central bank to adopt forward guidance 1999 at the so-called zero lower bound. The zero lower bound describes the situation when a central bank has already cut interest rates to effectively zero and cannot cut further.
    The intention with forward guidance at the zero lower bound is to provide additional stimulus by communicating that policy rates will remain lower than is priced into markets or reduce uncertainty among investors, thereby lowering interest rate volatility and possibly also risk premia.  
    But forward guidance has to be credible, it must be clearly communicated and then interpreted in the manner intended by the central bank, elements that raises significant challenges.
    These challenges include the risk to central banks’ reputation and the risk to financial stability from a central bank recalibrating its guidance.
    If a central bank uses calendar-based forward guidance, a deviation in a projected timetable due to economic changes could be perceived as the central bank reneging on a commitment, potentially undermining its credibility.
    Using state-contingent guidance, such as an unemployment rate, can ease the appearance of a central bank reneging on a commitment, but it raises the risk that the central bank is seen to be shifting away from controlling inflation. This was a frequent comment in the press when the BOE last August adopted an unemployment threshold.
    Examining the economic evidence of forward guidance on financial markets shows an immediate impact of announcements on the level of future interest rates, but with some signs that the impact diminishes over time.
    However, the BIS economists call for caution when interpreting the results as they don’t take into account existing market expectations and possible delays. The declining impact, for example, may reflect an improved ability of markets to anticipate the actions of the central bank over time.
    Another complication is that forward guidance announcements have often coincided with news about asset purchases or other policy changes, making it difficult to draw strong conclusions about the relative effectiveness of different types for forward guidance.
    “We conclude that the recent increased reliance on forward guidance has been helpful in clarifying policy intentions in highly unusual economic circumstances. However, the mixed evidence concerning the effectiveness of these practices, and the challenges they raise, caution against drawing firm conclusions about their ultimate value,” Filardo and Hofmann said.

    Click to read the March 2014 issue of the BIS Quarterly Review.

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