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Month: May 2013

Posted on May 23, 2013

Despite the Macro-Economic Nonsense, We’re Positive About the Future

By MoneyMorning.com.au

News came out yesterday to suggest the federal government might not return to a surplus after all (we never expected it to). As the Australian reports:

‘The nation’s finances are facing a deep structural challenge that could turn Labor’s promised budget surplus into a $20 billion deficit, as economists warn that further tax hikes and spending cuts will be needed to bring the accounts back into balance.‘

Or even more likely, that the Australian government will go further into debt – something we warned about more than three years ago. We said that the government would have an incentive to increase the debt load because they could say, ‘At least our debt levels aren’t as bad as elsewhere.’

To be honest, it pains us that we’re still writing about meddling and debt-laden governments nearly five years (that’s right, five years) after the world economy almost collapsed in a heap in September and October 2008.

It’s one reason we try to focus on the important things in the economy – revenue, profits, dividends, growth, entrepreneurs, technology, science, and all the rest.

Unfortunately, from time to time we do have to look at the crazy macro-economic picture. But not for too long. The last thing we want is to suffer from Macroparalysis. That is, being too afraid to invest (or punt) on stocks for fear of something going wrong.

Don’t Let Big Moves Sway Your Investment Decisions

Besides, another reason we try not to focus on all that stuff is because despite all the macro-economic nonsense, we’re positive about the future. Whether it means things will get worse before they get better, we can’t say. That’s why you need to be an active investor.

That doesn’t mean you should ignore macro-economic events. You only do that at your investing peril. But equally, it’s just as important to put them in perspective and develop strategies to profit, combat and protect your investments from these events.

If you do that and keep a good balance between taking advantage of the positives and protecting against the negatives, you’ll find your portfolio will grow nicely over the next 12 months…regardless of what happens to the world economy.

Cheers,
Kris+

From the Port Phillip Publishing Library

Special Report: How to Buy Better Stocks

Daily Reckoning: More Background Noise From Ben Bernanke

Money Morning: Why the Only Thing That Matters in the Markets is Japan

Pursuit of Happiness: Working Towards Independence From The State

Cheers,
Kris

Join me on Google+

Australian Small-Cap Investigator:
How to Make Money From Small-Cap Stocks

Posted on May 23, 2013

Buy Japanese Shares, Says Hedge Fund Guru

By MoneyMorning.com.au

Hedge fund manager Hugh Hendry is back in the news with the release of his latest quarterly letter. Hendry made a name – and lots of money – for himself by making some high-profile, contrarian investment calls early in his career.

At the height of the Chinese bull market, when it seemed the only economy impervious to the financial crisis, he famously filmed videos of empty apartment blocks and shopping centres in the country to support his bearish view on the economy.

But now Hendry, who manages the Eclectica Asset Management hedge fund, is feeling a lot more optimistic.

Bullish on The US and Japanese Shares…

US consumer stocks, the US dollar and Japanese shares.

When it comes to American consumer companies, Hendry likes those that make non-discretionary products – i.e., the stuff you pretty much can’t do without. The reason, says the 44-year-old Hendry, is that investors don’t have many other options.

‘Consider the plight of a conservative investor: concerned about the risks to the global economy and hence cyclical equities; fearful of financial repression in Treasuries; trapped (possibly unfairly) by the prejudice of the ten-year bear market in US dollars; scared that governments may have to haircut his savings account in the bank; and now terrified by the sudden price collapse in gold.’

Faced with that Hobson’s choice, investors will invariably opt for ‘the safest, least volatile, most liquid consumer non-discretionary blue-chips on Wall Street, which provide a 3% dividend income payable in dollars.’

Hendry’s second big theme is the US dollar. His reasoning is pretty simple – he is bullish on the American economy, thus expects the greenback to do well. Why is Hendry so optimistic about the US? It has ‘dealt with the overhang of bad debts from the housing bubble through a vicious house price correction and resulting bust and the recapitalisation of its banking system.’

Those shocks may have been painful at the time, but they mean that the US now stands out from the ‘rest of the world’.

Another painful but useful shock is that ‘wages have come down sharply relative to Asia’, says Hendry.When added to the cheap gas from ‘the shale gas boom’, it creates a lower cost-base that will allow ‘the US to reclaim market share within the global economy.’

Finally Hendry turned his attention to Japan’s economy. Back in 2008, he bought an option that would pay out if Japan’s Nikkei 225 index hit 40,000. Quite a big call given that the index hadn’t been anywhere near that level for almost two decades. Hendry’s optimism was guided by history.

‘It had taken the Dow Jones Industrial Index 25 years to recover from the nominal price losses of the Great Crash of 1929 and make new price highs. The gold price had required 27 years to overcome its previous bubble high.’

Therefore, reasoned Hendry, Japan could well play out something similar. He believed that ‘social democracy’s abhorrence of deflation…could once more persuade them to elect public officials intent on repealing the nominal loss.’

All Japan’s economy needed was a severe shock, says Hendry. In 2011, it got two when the euro threatened to disintegrate and the catastrophic Fukushima earthquake struck. ‘Sure enough, as the economic conditions worsened last year, we saw a newly elected government fire the institution’s two most senior decision makers and embark on a policy shift.’

The resultant money printing and depreciation of the yen ‘is very bullish for Japanese assets’, says Hendry.

So far this quarter, Hendry’s performance has been poor by his standards. His fund returned just 3.1% in the first quarter compared to much bigger gains on major US and UK indices. However, if he’s right on the above, his performance could be about to get a whole lot better.

James McKeigue
Contributing Editor, Money Morning

Join Money Morning on Google+

Publisher’s Note: This article first appeared here.

From the Archives…

The Foundations for the Great Lie We Have Built Our Lives Upon
17-05-2013 – Vern Gowdie

How the Aussie Dollar is Running Out of Friends, Fast
16-05-2013 – Murray Dawes

STOP PRESS…Resource Stocks Pay Dividends Too

15-05-2013 – Dr Alex Cowie

‘Best Week in Four Years’: Resource Stocks are Starting to Move…
14-05-2013 – Dr Alex Cowie

Why You Won’t See Me on ABC or CNBC Discussing Financial Markets…
13-05-2013 – Kris Sayce

Posted on May 23, 2013

VIDEO: China, Japan and their Demographic Time Bombs

By The Sizemore Letter

China made waves with a bad manufacturing report this week, sending world equities–and particularly Japanese equities–sharply lower. But the issues in Asia go beyond just exports and currency rates. It’s about plummeting birth rates and demographics, and what it means for Chinese and Japanese investments. Jeff Reeves of InvestorPlace.com and I talk things over.

As I mentioned on the video, I would run away from Japan screaming right now, or at least I would run away screaming from Japanese equities.  The short yen / long Japanese equity trade has been the most profitable macro trade in recent years, but it is a short-term trade supported with very weak fundamentals. The next fortune to be made in Japan will likely be in shorting its bonds.

SUBSCRIBE to Sizemore Insights via e-mail today.

Related posts:

  • Japan is a Dead Man Walking
  • Japan’s Endgame Nears
  • Japan is the Next Shoe to Drop
Posted on May 23, 2013

The Headline Data that Financial Media Ignored on Wednesday

By J.W. Jones – OptionsTradingSignals.com

Wednesday was a wild trading session where we saw the largest intraday selloff in the S&P 500 E-Mini futures that we have seen in some time. Intraday price action was driven largely by statements made by Chairman Bernanke and the release of the Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes which saw some monster intraday moves and a large spike in the Volatility Index (VIX).

While the world is focused on when the Federal Reserve is going to taper their Quantitative Easing program and the impact those actions will have on financial markets, I wanted to look at another divergence in the economic data which is supported by market action.

Instead of trying to determine how or when the Federal Reserve will taper or end their monetary experiment, I wanted to juxtapose statements that were made today with the actual facts. Readers can draw their own conclusions.

Recently, we have been told that the housing market is in the early stages of recovery. Unfortunately due to low interest rates housing has turned back into a speculative market. Consequently, a lot of so-called fast money is flowing into housing which in many cases is either being purchased for rentals or by foreign investors as a speculative investment.

At present the housing market is not being driven by capital formation at the household level and data indicates that construction jobs are under pressure and affordability is reversing. The chart below illustrates what has recently transpired in the 10 Year Treasury Yield:

Chart1(1)

As can be seen above, the 10 Year Treasury yield has risen considerably since the beginning of the month of May. Normally when interest rates are rising and Federal Reserve policy is indicating that a form of tightening seems likely we typically see a rush of mortgage applications and home starts as borrowers try to lock in lower interest rates. Furthermore, the spring and early summer months are generally considered a very favorable time to sell existing homes in the United States.

In light of all of the above mentioned facts paired with our Federal Reserve Chairman stating that housing is starting to recover, readers would expect that housing starts and mortgage applications would be jumping higher.

Unfortunately the mortgage application data came out on a day when the Federal Reserve was controlling the headlines. The mortgage application data indicated the largest 2-week rate of decline in mortgage applications since the housing bubble popped.

Furthermore, this is supposed to be a strong seasonal time for real estate and interest rates are rising as shown above. If readers look at recent price action in the Spiders Homebuilders ETF (XHB) or Home Depot (HD) it would appear that all is well in the land of housing and Chairman Bernanke and the Federal Reserve are spot on with their bullish analysis.

Chart2(1)

Until the past few trading sessions, the homebuilders have been in an obvious bullish run to the upside. The rally that transpired since the late February 2013 lows tacked on close to 20% gains in XHB. However, as noted above, the past few trading sessions’ price action appears to have stagnated and we saw new recent lows on Wednesday.

Home Depot (HD) is another stock that relies heavily on home construction and improvement and would likely benefit from both new home building and existing home purchases which typically require immediate customization or improvements. The recent price action in Home Depot is shown below.

Chart3(1)

Home Depot has had an impressive rally since the beginning of 2013. HD has tacked on over 20 points on its share price representing a near 30% move higher year to date. However, exuberance on Tuesday after earnings were released saw a spike Wednesday morning which was promptly reversed intraday.

Based on the recent price action in both the homebuilders ETF (XHB) and Home Depot (HD) readers would tend to agree with Chairman Bernanke that housing was recovering and that the recent mortgage application decline was merely “transitory.”

However, there is one eye-opening concern that does not support Chairman Bernanke’s position about a housing recovery and unfortunately points to less demand in the immediate future. While many investors do not track lumber prices, the chart below demonstrates the sheer bear market that has befallen lumber futures prices.

Chart4(1)

As can be seen above, random length lumber futures have gotten crushed to the downside over the past two months. In early March, lumber futures were trading up around the 410 price point. At the close on Wednesday, random length lumber futures closed at 305.20, a more than 25% drop in price in roughly 2 months.

How is housing rebounding with lumber prices falling? While Home Depot sells many products, most major remodeling projects and even smaller upgrades require the purchase of lumber. Have logging companies discovered an untapped lumber resource?

I will let readers decide whether to believe the price of lumber and mortgage application data or a Federal Reserve Chairman that declared on January 10, 2008 that “The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.”

For those paying attention, the macroeconomic data is crumbling in the United States and Europe. The printing press and monstrous liquidity can only fuel markets for so long. Can Chairman Bernanke and the Federal Reserve print Cap-EX spending increases and rising profitability? I think we all know the answer. In the end, when the Federal Reserve is printing $85 billion dollars per month to buy U.S. government debt perhaps fundamentals are largely irrelevant.

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This material should not be considered investment advice. J.W. Jones is not a registered investment advisor. Under no circumstances should any content from this article or the OptionsTradingSignals.com website be used or interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any type of security or commodity contract. This material is not a solicitation for a trading approach to financial markets. Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her registered investment advisor. This information is for educational purposes only.

 

Posted on May 23, 2013

Energy – Balancing the Bonanza: Interview with Mark Thoma

By OilPrice.com

If you want an objective view of energy, ask an economist, who can tell you what to expect to pay at the pump in the coming years, and why, as well as what to expect from medium- and long-term economic growth and what the real drivers will be. These are questions that are crucial to a pending decision by the US government over natural gas exports, and while we know where big oil stands versus its manufacturing rivals—it’s the economist who can set things straight.

Mark Thoma is a macroeconomist and time-series econometrician at the University of Oregon. His research focuses on how monetary policy affects the economy, and he has also worked on political business cycle models. Mark is currently a fellow at The Century Foundation, a columnist at The Fiscal Times, an analyst at CBS MoneyWatch, and he blogs daily at Economist’s View.

In an exclusive interview with Oilprice.com, Thoma discusses:

 

  • What we can expect from gas prices this summer and beyond
  • Why clean energy won’t see an dramatic investment rival, for now
  • How political feasibility, not economic feasibility, drives the ethanol mandate
  • Why the ethanol mandate might eventually be nixed
  • How we weigh the free market against government intervention
  • Why there is little momentum for a US-wide carbon market
  • What we learned from the global financial crisis
  • Why our best hope for strong economic growth is in exports

 

Interview by James Stafford of Oilprice.com

 

James Stafford: What every regular consumer wants to know is why the price of gas at the pump continues to rise in the midst of a much-lauded oil and gas boom?

Mark Thoma: In the short-run, of course, the price of gas is quite variable. Recent forecasts, for example, indicate that prices will decline a bit over the summer, but at some point they will undoubtedly head back up again. The real question is how the underlying trend for gas prices, which has been increasing over time, will be affected by increases in the supply of energy from shale and other sources. Will the upward trend in gas prices continue? The answer depends upon the relative growth in the supply and demand for energy. I believe the new energy sources and the corresponding increase in supply will temper the upward trend, but the trend will continue due in particular to growth in demand from developing economies.

James Stafford: According to first quarter 2013 figures, clean energy investment is at its lowest since 2009. What do you see happening in terms of clean energy investment over the rest of 2013 and then in the next 2-3 years?

Mark Thoma: With all of the budget pressures we have seen in recent years, I have a hard time imagining increased support for new investment from the government, so any increase will have to come from the private sector. The incentive for the private sector to undertake these investments depends upon the price of energy – as the price of energy rises alternatives become more attractive – but as noted in the answer to the previous question I see the price of energy continuing to rise, but do not expect the dramatic, permanent spikes in prices needed to spur a substantial increase in investment.

James Stafford: Is the ethanol mandate economically feasible?

Mark Thoma: I think the ethanol mandate is economically feasible in the sense that it could persist, but I don’t think it’s the best way to address our reliance on imported energy or the environmental issues associated with energy use. It’s the political feasibility that seems to be most at issue, and the power struggle between states with grain interests and states with interests in traditional fossil fuels will determine the outcome. I expect the ethanol mandate will eventually be overcome, particularly since the discovery of new domestic energy supplies undermines one of the strongest arguments for it, energy independence.

James Stafford: On a broader level, is US energy policy missing the mark by interfering too much to boost renewable energy against fossil fuels? Should the free market reign?

Mark Thoma: When significant market failures are present, the free market does not produce the best possible allocation of resources and government intervention can help. Thus, the question for me is whether significant market failures exist in renewable energy research. I believe that they do, and that, if anything, we are not doing enough to promote new energy technology. This is not unique to renewable energy, such market failures are common and underlie government issued patents, research grants, and so on. However, let me be clear that I am not in favor of government “picking winners” by, say, favoring particular companies or products, but I am in favor of generous support for basic research in this area.

James Stafford: How do you see the US carbon trading market shaping up even though it is not on a national level, but remains the purview of states, most notably California?

Mark Thoma: Presently, there seems to be little momentum for a US carbon market, and I don’t see that changing in the near future. The necessary public and political support simply isn’t there. It will, sadly, probably take a natural disaster or extinction of an important species that can clearly be connected to climate change before any notable change occurs.

James Stafford: How are climate change and the climate change debate affecting the economy?

Mark Thoma: I don’t think it’s having a large impact, particularly since any action on climate change seems all but impossible with our present Congress. Some people claim that fear of regulation, e.g. on carbon emissions, is holding back the recovery but the data does not support this contention.

James Stafford: In general, what is your impression of the Fed’s handling of the economy, and attempts to drive the recovery?

Mark Thoma: I believe the Fed was essential in preventing an even larger collapse, and I applaud the creativity the Fed demonstrated in creating special facilities and the like to deal with various problems. With that said, the Fed has not been perfect in its reaction to the crisis. It was too slow to recognize the depth of the downturn, there was too much fear of inflation causing the Fed to under react – and when they did react they were often behind the curve – and they were far too eager to see “green shoots” just around the corner rather than make tough policy decisions.

Lately, however, the Fed has done better and though it still hasn’t been aggressive enough for my tastes, it has certainly helped to push the recovery along. The big problem presently is the lack of support from fiscal authorities, without such support there’s only so much the Fed can do.

James Stafford: Generally speaking, due to the close links among world economies most crashed following the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2008. Does this tight relationship mean that no one country can truly see an economic recovery until all/most countries are ready? How do you think the 2008 crisis will affect the way economies rely on each other in the future?

Mark Thoma: One of the interesting features of the recession is that developing economies did better (in a relative sense) than developed economies. Thus, one lesson from the crisis is that developing countries are more “decoupled” from developing countries than we thought. That’s not to say they weren’t affected, international trade collapsed during the recession and that didn’t help countries that rely upon export markets, but developing economies weren’t affected anywhere near as much as many observers predicted. Within the developed world, it’s a different story. Here, the linkages appear to be much stronger, both through the financial system and through the real economy, and a true recovery will require a general improvement in economic conditions. As for the future, I don’t think we’ll see much effort to reduce international trade as a way to reduce these linkages – that’s counterproductive – but I do think we’ll see much more concern about financial interconnectedness. However, turning that concern into effective regulation that can extend across national borders is a difficult problem and I’m not all that optimistic that we’ll be able to do as much as needed on the regulatory front.

James Stafford: What are your views on exporting US natural gas? Do you believe it could provide a cornerstone for economic recovery?

Mark Thoma: Growth in the demand for our goods and services can be divided into four components, growth of consumption, growth of investment, growth in government spending, and growth in net exports (exports minus imports). Which of these components will drive future growth? It’s hard to imagine consumption growth rising above where it was pre-recession when it was elevated by excessive credit growth, so this is an unlikely driver of higher future growth. Same for government spending, if anything this will be curtailed as we try to bring our long-run budget under control. Business investment might increase and drive future growth, but it is relatively high already and further increases seem unlikely. That means our best hope for strong growth in the future lies with increasing the growth in exports, and exporting natural gas could be an important component of growth in this area.

James Stafford: Oil is finite, and whilst many countries in the world have poorly developed economies, oil supplies already struggle to meet demand. Basically, not all countries can develop economically whilst the first world economies remain as large and demanding as they are. Do you think as more effort is made to develop third world countries, the first world countries must inevitably decline as a result?

Mark Thoma: I’m an optimist when it comes to world growth and I do not believe that developed countries must decline as developing countries rise. Technology – digital technology, the rise of robots, and advances in energy production in particular – will allow both the developed and developing world to prosper. My big worries lie with distribution, i.e. whether and how the problem of rising inequality can be solved.

James Stafford: What will Obama’s economic legacy be? Has he helped or hindered economic development?

Mark Thoma: That’s a tough question since we don’t yet know what’s ahead, but a big part of his legacy will certainly be connected to Obamacare, particularly if it eventually evolves into some type of single payer system with universal coverage. A second legacy is more uncertain, but I believe Obama would like to produce a Grand Bargain that will bring our long-run budget under control. Whether he’ll be remembered fondly by liberals for this will depend upon the degree to which he protects important social insurance programs, Medicare and Social Security in particular. Then there’s the legacy I hope he’ll have, but doubt he will. This may be mostly wishful thinking, but if the deficit continues to decline as it has recently, if government spending as share of GDP is no higher post-recession than it was pre-recession, and if inflation remains subdued (as I believe it will), then perhaps his third legacy will be an important lesson. We worried far too much about debt and inflation, and far too little about the most important and most costly problem, the unemployed. We could have and should have done much more than we did to help the unemployed, and if we can somehow learn that lesson, that will be an important legacy of the Obama years.

Source: http://oilprice.com/Interviews/Energy-and-Economic-Growth-Interview-with-Mark-Thoma.html

 

Posted on May 23, 2013May 23, 2013

How to Negotiate a Sea of Stock Market Data for Your Own Personal Gain

Negotiate a Sea of Stock Market Data for Your Own Personal GainIn the online world of free investment parlance, you can always find an opinion out there that meets your view. That is, of course, the point.

Just as you can with statistics, if you dig hard enough, you can find the numbers to support any case.

But in the stock market, it’s very important to remember that the mindset of institutional investors is different from that of Main Street.

By “institutional investors,” I’m referring to any entity that is buy-side, with investing money being the main concern. The Wall Street investment banker mindset, the sell-side, is its own unique beast.

Institutional investors are paid to play. That’s their business. If a mutual fund or exchange-traded fund (ETF) takes in money, it has to invest it. Contributors don’t pay fees to have money sit in cash.

The stock market is very much a marketplace that is fueled by the supply and demand of common shares and cash.

With greater demand (new inflows to institutional investors) and less supply (the amount of initial public offerings [IPOs], secondary offerings, and corporate share buybacks), prices go up.

That’s why everything in the stock market is only relative—share prices, earnings, earnings estimates, valuations, and views.

Is priceline.com Incorporated (NASDAQ/PCLN) worth $847.33 a share? Or should it be $694.06 a share, like it was on May 1? That’s a huge stock market gain, and the month isn’t even over yet. (See “BlackRock Takes in Billions For Equities: A Signal the Stock Market Is Near a Top?”)

The only thing institutional investors lament is a lack of new cash inflows.

Being in the business of getting paid to play the stock market, the effort is always about participating, not deciding whether to get in or out of the market.

And for institutional investors and funds that buy stocks, new cash inflows create a situation in which the stock market then feeds itself as that money is slowly put to work.

In a secondary market, the supply and demand for common shares is very important.

If you have the desire, consider reading the Form 10-Qs of publicly traded institutional investors and the statistics on new cash inflows to the stock market. It’s a great way to get a sense of the demand part of the equation.

Also consider reading the quarterly and annual outlooks from institutional investors. Most of them offer their general market views for free.

Because institutional investors are the drivers of share prices, it’s useful to know what they’re thinking.

With so much free information available on the stock market today, getting to know the institutional mindset is as valuable as any piece of information available.

A stock like priceline.com appreciated 22% since the beginning of this month for no other reason than the increased buying by big investors.

Getting to know the mindset of institutional investors is helpful in shaping your own outlook and maximizing your returns.

It’s an easy, uncomplicated research method that can pay.

 

By Abby Joseph

Source – http://www.profitconfidential.com/stock-market/how-to-negotiate-a-sea-of-stock-market-data-for-your-own-personal-gain/

 

Posted on May 23, 2013

South Africa holds rate on inflation risk, cuts GDP forecast

By www.CentralBankNews.info
   South Africa’s central bank held its benchmark repurchase rate steady at 5.0 percent, as expected, but cut its growth forecast and appealed for price and wage restraint to avoid higher inflation.
    The South African Reserve Bank (SARB),  which cut rates by 50 basis points in 2012, painted a bleak picture, saying domestic growth prospects were fragile, consumer confidence was low, the mining sector was plagued by continuing disruptions, the supply of electricity was constrained and the global economic environment was weak.
    South Africa’s rand currency has been falling in value, down by some 4.6 percent against the U.S. dollar since late March, as the confidence of investors since mid-2012 has been undermined by fraught labor relations and high wage demands, especially in the mining sector, and worries over a growing balance of payments deficit due lower commodity prices and mining exports.
    “The current level of the exchange rate, if sustained, poses a significant upside risk to the inflation outlook,” the SARB said in a statement.
    The central bank cut its 2013 growth forecast to 2.4 percent from 2.7 percent and to 3.5 percent from 3.7 percent for 2014. In 2012 South Africa’s Gross Domestic Product grew by 2.5 percent.
    By 2015, SARB expects economic growth to accelerate to 3.8 percent, with the negative output gap starting to close that year after widening this year.

    In the fourth quarter of 2012, South Africa’s GDP expanded by 2.1 percent from the third quarter for annual growth of 2.5 percent, up from 2.3 percent.

Posted on May 23, 2013

Has Microsoft Found Its Savior?

Has Microsoft Found Its Savior

By Profit Confidential

Did you notice that Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ/MSFT) is a hot commodity once again? After essentially trading in a sideways channel since late 2009 to April 2013, the stock broke out to a new 52-week and multiyear high of $35.10 on Monday, according to my stock analysis.

With the move, Bill Gates has recaptured his title as the world’s richest man, having a net worth of over $75.0 billion. Microsoft is now valued at $292 billion and is catching on fire.

Only a few months ago, I was questioning the potential of Microsoft; I felt that the former Wall Street darling was set for a crash landing unless it could convince the market that better times were ahead. (Read “Another Lost Decade for Microsoft?”)

Fast-forward three months, and my stock analysis now suggests that Microsoft seems to be firing on all cylinders and is once again catching the attention of Wall Street and investors.

The chart of Microsoft below shows the stock (as shown in red candlesticks) moving higher in relation to the S&P 500 (as shown by the green line), based on my technical analysis.

Microsoft Corporation Chart

Chart courtesy of www.StockCharts.com

My stock analysis indicates that the rising of the stock has not been triggered by its new “Windows 8” touchscreen or the Windows smartphone in association with Nokia Corporation (NYSE/NOK); but the company is showing great potential in its ever-growing gaming division.

On Tuesday, Microsoft launched its highly anticipated “Xbox One,” which will represent a dramatic change from the “Xbox 360.”

Based on the somewhat glitzy presentation in New York City, the Xbox One looks like it has seen a radical change, evolving from its previous models as the company tries to continue the popularity of its gaming console; the Xbox has developed into more of an integrated entertainment system that will allow users to access games, online movies, music, and the Internet.

In fact, since I purchased my Xbox 360 a few years ago, I have watched the steady evolution of the console from being solely for gaming and movies to a much more integrated platform that allows for online gaming and movies, along with Internet features.

The next-generation Xbox One looks like it will offer even more. The console will allow for real-time switching between live TV, video games, Internet, Skype, and other services. You will be able to play a game while you toggle over to live TV or the Internet.

The aftermath will be a more powerful entertainment platform that could allow Microsoft to widen its distance from the rival “PlayStation 3” (soon to be “PlayStation 4”) and “Nintendo Wii.”

While Microsoft is still not providing growth at the same scale as the likes of Google Inc. (NASDAQ/GOOG) or Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ/NFLX), according to my stock analysis, the growing acceptance of its gaming unit will offer excitement to a company that many felt was ready to be buried.

Perhaps as the gaming unit grows, Microsoft may even decide to split its gaming unit to increase the lock-in value that I believe will grow.

 

Source – http://www.profitconfidential.com/stock-market/has-microsoft-found-its-savior/

 

 

Posted on May 23, 2013

Bullion Rallies Despite “Losing US Fed Prop” as Stock Markets Sink on Weak China Data

London Gold Market Report
from Adrian Ash
BullionVault
Weds 22 May, 08:45 EST

BOTH gold and silver rose in Asian and London trade Thursday morning, defying a sharp slide in global stock markets to gain 3.0% rally from yesterday’s sharp sell-off.

Commodity prices fell as major government bonds rose but weaker Eurozone debt slipped, pushing interest rates higher.

Tokyo’s Nikkei index – up by 85% from November – dumped more than 7% after new data showed a surprise contraction in China’s manufacturing sector.

Private “retail” investors have “abducted” the Japanese stock market, accounting for more than a third of recent volume, according to brokers quoted by the Financial Times.

“[Gold’s] inability to hold the highs is bearish,” says the latest technical chart analysis from Scotia Mocatta.

“[Wednesday’s] intra-day rally is indicative of bargain hunting in gold rather than a change in trend,” the bullion bank adds, pegging support at the April 2013 low of $1323.

Like Barclays Capital’s analysts, Scotia now puts short-term resistance at yesterday’s sudden spike of $1412.

Gold prices rose Thursday morning to breach $1390 per ounce once again, recovering two-thirds of Wednesday’s plunge from that 1-week high – made as US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke was testifying to the Senate on the likely direction of Dollar interest rates and quantitative easing.

Having warned against “a premature tightening of monetary policy” however, Bernanke was then asked if the Fed might start reducing its $85 billion in monthly QE purchases of government debt and mortgage bonds before Labor Day on Sept. 1st.

“I don’t know,” Bernanke replied.

Minutes from the US central bank’s latest policy meeting also showed one participant wanting to reduce the level of QE “immediately”.

“Not having the future support of the Fed,” says Edward Meir’s note for INTL FC Stone, “will remove a major prop for gold.”

“It seems the market is now squarely focusing on the September 17-18 [policy] meeting for the Fed to make its move,” reckons ING bank’s analysts.

“Together with expectations of tightening quantitative easing,” says Mitsubishi analyst Jonathan Butler – also quoted by Reuters – “the general trend for a modest economic recovery in the developed markets is going to fuel growth in the equity markets and the Dollar.

“That should see gold coming under pressure.”

“The momentum is strongly negative,” says Edward Lashinski, global strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Chicago.

“The market understands that gold is no longer a safe haven.”

On the supply side meantime, “Being more profitable is better than being bigger,” said Jamie Sokalsky, CEO of the world’s largest gold miner, Barrick, at Bloomberg’s Canada Economic Summit in Toronto on Tuesday.

Also forecasting new record highs for the gold price thanks to central-bank demand and the state of the global economy, Sokalsky mooted “divesting” some smaller, higher-cost mines to focus on more efficient projects.

In particular, the giant Pascua-Lama project in Chile – valued at some $8.5 billion, and already eating some $5bn in costs – has been delayed by environmental concerns, says Canada’s Financial Post.

“Barrick is considering all its options at Pascua-Lama,” says the paper, “including outright suspension.”

At current gold prices around 10% of gold mines globally will be making losses, according to Thomson Reuters GFMS data.

“We would initially expect the oldest mines closing,” says a special report from Japanese trading house Mitsui’s metals strategist David Jollie in London, “as they are in many cases coming to the end of their operating life.”

Gold mining companies are likely to avoid closing newer projects “as long as possible,” Jollie says. But if the gold price stays low enough long enough, “closures will happen.”

 

Adrian Ash

BullionVault

Gold price chart, no delay | Buy gold online

 

Adrian Ash is head of research at BullionVault, the secure, low-cost gold and silver market for private investors online, where you can buy gold and silver in Zurich, Switzerland for just 0.5% commission.

 

(c) BullionVault 2013

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.

 

Posted on May 23, 2013

Central Bank News Link List – May 23, 2013: ECB seeks new tools while Fed toys with exit

By www.CentralBankNews.info

Here’s today’s Central Bank News’ link list, click through if you missed the previous link list. The list comprises news about central banks that is not covered by Central Bank News. The list is updated during the day with the latest developments so readers don’t miss any important news.

  • ECB seeks new tools while Fed toys with exit (Reuters)
  • Flaherty says he’s worried by loose policies globally (Bloomberg)
  • Long-term interest rate hits 1%; BOJ struggles to curb rise (Asahi Shimbun)
  • Poland rate setter: 50 bps rate cut in June would be justified-Bloomberg (Dow Jones)
  • S.Korea needs to keep easy policy for a while: think tank (Reuters)
  • China may scrap floor for interest rates this year – media (Reuters)
  • Peru open to rate cut as central bank mulls lower GDP forecast (Bloomberg)
  • Shekel weakens, benchmark yield falls on central bank rate bets (Bloomberg)
  • Vietnam has small chance for further rate cut in 2013: central banker (Thanh Nien)
  • Singapore’s expansion reduces pressure to ease policy (Bloomberg)
  • IMF urges Serbia to hold interest rates until inflation slows (Bloomberg)
  • Taiwan central bank cuts banks’ daily limit on unwinding long US dollar positions (WSJ)
  • Vietnam premier approves debt asset company, central bank says (Thanh Nien)
  • www.CentralBankNews.info

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