Month: April 2012

By MoneyMorning.com.au

Often times in the small-cap market you’ll see companies rapidly spike on the back of a rumour and get issued a speeding ticket.

Sometimes it’s a case of investors buying the rumour ahead of the news. But not always.

But there is a benefit to this share price surge – liquidity.

The more liquid a stock is the better the chance you have of being able to buy shares in it at the price you want – and the less volatile the price will be as other investors buy and sell around you.

In our view, this sort of price movement can be the beginning of the share price being “de-risked”. That term is unique to commodity projects. When a resource is converted into a reserve (proved up by reliable drilling results) the project becomes more certain.

The increased certainty usually results in the share price going up.

This is all part of what happens when a share price is “de-risked”. And it’s not just resources companies.

It can happen to any small company when it starts to hit its straps. It’s what’s known as the small-cap effect. The diagram below will help you see what I mean:

What you see is like the chart DNA of a successful small-cap company. Granted, not every winner goes through this predictable pattern. But many do. When you see the pattern forming, it can help you time your entry into a share at the ideal time for maximum profits.

Please note, it’s not essential that you buy a stock the moment it hits the bottom of a range – although if you want to take that kind of punt you can.

Most of the time, what you’re looking for – and what we try to do in Australian Small-Cap Investigator each month – is buy into a stock at the beginning of an uptrend… when it’s in the “buying zone”. Any buying zone will do, although some moves are bigger than others.

But the small-cap effect isn’t a once-off event for a stock. It can happen in waves to the same stock many times over. For instance a stock will usually rally on the back of an upbeat announcement – such as a resource discovery.

Next the share price may fall back as the initial excitement wanes. But because the discovery has taken the stock to a new level, it’s not often the stock price will fall all the way back.

From this point the stock can tread water as investors wait for the next exciting news. This period can last days, weeks, months or even years.

But once the next news breaks, the stock can take off again… and quick.

For the most part you want to get in early, before the real price movement occurs.

Kris Sayce
Editor, Australian Small Cap Investigator

From the Archives…

Disruptive Technology Stocks For Smart Small-Cap Investors
2012-04-06 – Kris Sayce

ASX 200: This Market is Toast
2012-04-05 – Murray Dawes

Why Every Bank Will Soon Be a Tax Collector for Every Government Everywhere
2012-04-04 – Merryn Somerset Webb

Not Even Saudi Arabia Can Save Us From High Oil Prices
2012-04-03 – Jason Simpkins

Good News For Oil and Resource Investors
2012-04-02 – Dr. Alex Cowie

The Small Cap Effect

By MoneyMorning.com.au

Historically, very good gains have been made in Turkish stocks during periods of political unrest.  While not in the same category as Thailand, Turkey does have a reputation for instability when it comes to politics.

One of the main reasons for this is the struggle between those with a religious agenda and those with a secular one.  Throw in a very active military sworn to protect Turkey’s secular constitution and the possibility for volatility exists.

Turkey, like many other emerging markets, has a massive black market for goods and services.  Smuggling is a popular profession in a country that borders so many that are faced with internal restrictions and lack of adequate supply chains.

Turkey, because of its strategic location, is also a key player in the energy business – not from a production point of view, but rather as a location for major pipelines. Many of the countries around Turkey, especially Iran and Iraq, are major energy producers in the world.

Internally, more than 30 percent of the population is dependent on agriculture.  Turkey is a regional breadbasket and the country has vast arable land.  The country still faces major unemployment problems, as do most countries in Europe.

More than 12 percent of the population is regarded as unemployed.  This would be less of an issue were it not for the fact that the economy grew by more than 8 percent in 2010 and was on track for similar gains in 2011.

With that kind of growth, job creation should be significant. It’s not. Part of the problem is that Turkey’s informal market leads to skewed statistics.  Those who work for cash, and there are many hundreds of thousands who do, can at the same time bleed the government for benefits.

One of Turkey’s greatest weaknesses of the past has been poor fiscal management. Tax collection is nearly impossible in a country where tax evasion is a pastime, something Turkey and Greece have in common.

The government is always strapped for cash and this has led to massive deficit issues in the past and significant devaluation of its currency, the lira, to make up for its debtor status.

The current government headed by Prime Minister Recep Erdogan has been in power since 2003 and is entering its third term. Under Erdogan, Turkey has deregulated the economy, privatized many state enterprises, and attracted foreign investment through a climate of economic certainty.

The result has been 26 straight quarters of growth through 2011; foreign reserves of US$90 billion versus just over $20 billion in 1992; inflation of just under 6 percent, down from 40 percent a few years ago; and debt to GDP of less than 40 percent compared with 74 percent in 2002.

Erdogan is a religious man who embraces his faith publicly, a rarity in Turkish politics. Yet, despite his constant efforts to push Turkey from its secular position and his friction with the military, he continues to receive strong popular support for his economic policies and his handling of Turkey’s other problem.

The other problem is Turkey’s constant struggle against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a group that claims to represent the displaced Kurdish population.  The Kurds have been seeking a separate state in what they consider their ancestral homeland in southeast Turkey and northern Iraq.

They speak a different language, follow different customs, and have been involved in numerous attacks on military and civilian targets. In the past 25 years the conflict has resulted in more than 40,000 deaths, mainly on the Kurdish side.

Erdogan has made strides (one of the requirements for entering the EU) in recognizing the Kurds through actions such as restoring Kurdish names to several towns, allowing Kurds to use their language in the local political arena, and trying to maintain good relations between the two ethnic groups.

But, as recently as late 2011, Turkish planes bombarded Kurdish rebel strongholds in northern Iraq after insurgencies into Turkey by the PKK. This situation, while better than in the past, is still quite tenuous and could damage the country and presidency were it to escalate.

Local investment in Turkey should be restricted to Istanbul and the Turkish coast.  These are the areas with greatest development potential for tourism, a huge money earner for Turkey…

Turkey is solidly a Tier 1 emerging market. This means that there is a very little likelihood of it turning back economically. It has an established market system, good infrastructure, an established political system, and a population that is used to being relatively independent. While its secular status has been challenged in recent years, there is no indication that Turkey will not adhere to democratic principles regardless of who is in power. It is a country often overlooked by investors, yet it offers some of the best visibility in the region.

Karim Rahemtulla

Contributing Writer, Money Morning

Publisher’s Note: This is an extract from Karim Rahemtulla’s just-released book, Where in the World Should I Invest?

From the Archives…

Disruptive Technology Stocks For Smart Small-Cap Investors
2012-04-06 – Kris Sayce

ASX 200: This Market is Toast
2012-04-05 – Murray Dawes

Why Every Bank Will Soon Be a Tax Collector for Every Government Everywhere
2012-04-04 – Merryn Somerset Webb

Not Even Saudi Arabia Can Save Us From High Oil Prices
2012-04-03 – Jason Simpkins

Good News For Oil and Resource Investors
2012-04-02 – Dr. Alex Cowie

The Turkish Economy: Knocking At The Door

Source: ForexYard

The price of crude oil was boosted during Wednesday’s trading after  a slightly positive crude oil inventories report.The moderate gains come after several days of losses which saw the commodity finish Tuesday’s trading at its lowest price since February. Crude’s gains were also largely due to better then expected earnings from Alcoa Inc.

Crude appreciated 1.7 percent to reach the $102.70 mark after the latest inventories report which showed improved results in comparison to previous figures . Wednesday’s performance saw the first gains made by the commodity in three days after slipping from last week.

There are still a  number of financial reports due for release during Thursday and Friday which could have an impact on both the commodity and currency markets.

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Source: ForexYard

The British Pound made gains over the U.S dollar after seeing good results in retail sales for the month of March.

The pound also made gains versus the Yen for the first time in six days as Spanish bonds and European stocks advanced today. The current upward movements shown could ease concern over the current and future state of the European economy.

Heading into the evening London time, the GBP showed gains of 0.2 percent to $1,5981 versus the greenback after showing previous gains of 0.5 percent, the biggest gains versus the U.S dollar since the end of March.The GBP also showed gains of 0.5 percent versus the Japanese Yen whilst showing little movements against the Euro.

A number of important financial reports are due for release tomorrow including Canadian and American Trade Balance, U.S Initial Jobless Claims and China’s GDP

Forex Market Analysis provided by ForexYard.

© 2006 by FxYard Ltd

Disclaimer: Trading Foreign Exchange carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. There is a possibility that you could sustain a loss of all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with Foreign Exchange trading.

Article by Investment U

If you have an idea of what you’re looking for in a stock, a stock screener will save you loads of time.

These days, my most precious commodity isn’t oil, gold, or even money. It’s time. I just don’t have any.

With all of the deadlines I have to meet, trading services I have to run, speeches I have to prepare, soccer teams I have to coach, catches in the driveway that need to be had and quality time that needs to be spent with my wife, there’s very little “me” time.

I’m not complaining. I love being busy. And I’d rather it be this way than have nothing to do but watch Maury reruns to see if the guy really is the baby daddy (it’s always more entertaining when he’s not).

Because of all of the deadlines and obligations, I’m always searching for ways to save time. A new route to the kids’ school to save five minutes? Just tell me where to go. If a flight will get me to my destination 20 minutes sooner than another one, I’ll be on the earlier plane. And if I can use a tool to take hours off of my research when analyzing stocks, you can be sure I’ll use it.

If you have an idea of what you’re looking for in a stock, a stock screener will save you loads of time.

For example, you may only want to consider stocks trading below a 17 price-to-earnings ratio, with low debt and a dividend yield of 2%. By plugging those factors into a stock screener, it would save a tremendous amount of time over first finding all of the stocks with a sub 17 P/E, then seeing if any have the right yield, then investigating the balance sheets to determine if their debt is low enough.

Fortunately, there are lots of screeners out there for you, and many of them are free.

First, let’s talk about one that’s not worth your time – Yahoo! Finance.

Let me start by saying that I LOVE Yahoo! Finance. The wealth of free information available on Yahoo! Finance is astounding. It’s the first site I check every morning for general market news and to look up information on my stocks. I use it all day long.

However, their screener is very rudimentary. Too simple for anyone trying to conduct even basic analysis.

My favorite screener is the free one offered by Bing, which used to be MSN. Along with some pre-programmed screens for you to use such as value stocks, contrarian stocks, etc., you can also select from a decent number of variables.

For example, if I want to find stocks with a market cap of at least $1 billion, with earnings growth of between 10% and 30%, with a quick ratio of greater than 1, and trading below book value, I can plug those variables in and it generates a list of 13 stocks including Lukoil (OTC: LUKOY.PK) and Sprint Nextel (NYSE: S). From there I can conduct my own analysis and see if these are companies that would make a suitable investment.

Morningstar has a decent free screener as well, and an even better one if you pay for it.

Most online stockbrokers have screens, though they are often based on technical indicators rather than fundamentals. But many are constantly improving their offerings and, for technically oriented traders, there are some pretty good screeners offered by the brokers.

I haven’t seen many free screeners that combine fundamental analysis and technical analysis. In my opinion, that’s the best way to find stocks. By ensuring that you’re investing in quality businesses and then narrowing the timing of your entry with technical analysis, you stand a much better chance of success. You can have a great company, but if the stock isn’t getting ready to move, there’s no reason to own it now.

Even the screeners that charge a fee often don’t combine the two methodologies.

The free screeners lack one important element: backtesting. That’s the ability to go back in time and test your screen according to what really happened in the market and in the stocks selected by the screener. Some brokerages offer software that allows you to test your strategies out.

In an upcoming column, I will discuss how to use those backtesting systems to improve your results.

In the meantime, I encourage you to play with the various screeners you can find online and with your broker, and see how much time it will shave off of your stock selection process.

Good Investing,

Marc Lichtenfeld

P.S. If you like the idea of using a system on which to base stock trading decisions but don’t have the time to develop one yourself, I encourage you to take a look at my Oxford Systems Trader. Over the past decade, when the system was backtested, it outperformed the market by 1,568%. And since it’s gone live, it’s doing great in the real world, too.

Last week, we took 24% gains in Cardtronics (Nasdaq: CATM) and we’ve had three triple-digit winners so far. And on Monday, I recommended an energy play that is ridiculously cheap, yet growing book value and efficiency at a rapid clip.

For more info, click here.

Article by Investment U

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox (Dublin) – The Swiss National Bank had come under pressure to defend its 1.20 francs per euro limit and breaches of the cap about the SNB intentions. Today the SNB Interim Chief Thomas Jordan indicated that the bank will continue to enforce the cap despite the recent trends in the euro. The euro has weakened over the last few days due to fears that the debt crisis might not be over, which was raised during the Spain bond auction last week. Investors are looking at the France auction to determine whether the threat is real for the euro.

Thomas Jordan said that the Swiss National Bank was taking measures to enforce the minimum exchange rate. He said that the Central Bank is ready to buy foreign currency in “unlimited quantities” to ensure that the cap is observed and insisted that the policy of the SNB remain unchanged. The cap was breached for the first in April 5 when the exchange rate reached 1.9995 francs per euro. After this breach and the Jordan’s statement, David Kohl, an economist in Frankfurt said that the it is hard for the SNB to control the market and due to the high market transparency any slight breach in the limit set will attract a lot of attention.

After the SNB interim chairman’s remarks, the Franc remained unchanged at 1.2026, which is above the level it was before the first breach. The SNB has included more than 100 banks as counterparties to help it keep the cap and Jordan was quick to indicate that with the help of these financial institutions, the SNB was able to bring the situation back to normal.

In his statement, Jordan indicated that the price below the 1.20 cap was set by banks that are not participating in the project which were quoted. But the SNB was prepared to buy more foreign currency to ensure that the limit is observed. Further, the pressure on the franc came from the euro region where Mariano Rajoy, the Spain’s Prime Minister had indicated that his country was in “extreme difficult” after the Spain Bond auction failed to live up to the expectations. This pushed demand for safe haven currencies and the Swiss Franc was the best option for many.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox

Article by Investment U

Legendary energy tycoon T. Boone Pickens has been on his crusade for a switch to natural gas for some time now. And of course his company, Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (Nasdaq: CLNE), stands to benefit greatly if he can convince the mainstream to make the switch.

But Pickens may have made his most poignant and intriguing argument to date in a recent TED Talk:

It’s almost disgusting to imagine that the United States in all of its debt woes and spending dilemma has paid OPEC $700 billion since just 2008 and $7 Trillion since 1976 (Including the cost of military and oil both). And why is military included in that figure?

Because, as Pickens argues, this oil habit is creating the need for our country to “police the world.”

Pickens points out that, for instance, there are 12 aircraft carriers in the world. Of those 12, 11 belong to the United States. And as Pickens’ graphic shows, the majority of those 11 are protecting the major oil shipping lanes in the Middle East.

A Look Closer at Pickens’ CLNE

So how do we curb this expensive habit?

Pickens obviously advocated switching to much cheaper and slightly cleaner natural gas. And with natural gas at historic lows, it may be the best option we have.

And if we are able to make this happen, one of the most obvious benefactors will be Pickens’ own CLNE.

Clean Energy Fuels Corp. is no stranger to Investment U.

In July 2009, David Fessler touted the company as a way to play the increasing usage of natural gas in cars and trucks.

Since then, CLNE’s shares have jumped as much as 186%. This year alone, share prices have popped as high as 84%.

Yet since hitting a record high of $24 in March, shares have fizzled to around $19.00.

But does this indicate a buying opportunity or are share prices likely to fall even further?

CLNE’s Biggest Hurdle… Politics

Headed by legendary energy tycoon, T. Boone Pickens, CLNE is the largest provider of CNG and LNG in North America.

It fuels over 25,000 vehicles daily at 273 locations in the United States and Canada. And the company is steadily growing each year. Last year, revenue increased 38% from 2010. The amount of natural gas

But shares dropped $5.00 in just the last month. And it begs the questions what’s going on here?

A big culprit – as Dave predicted it would be two years ago – is politics.

In March, the U.S. Senate rejected the New Alternatives to Give Americans Solutions (NAT GAS) Act that would’ve subsidized natural gas vehicles.

T. Boone pushed very hard for this legislation, meeting in Washington nearly a dozen times in 2011. The bill would’ve been a big boost to CLNE and T. Boone’s bottom line. Instead, it has become a catalyst for the stock’s recent slide.

For short-term investors, I wouldn’t expect another jolt in the company’s stock price anytime soon either. Operating margins at CLNE have slipped 14% over the past 12 months. Profit margins are also down 16%.

But while CLNE’s short-term outlook isn’t anything to jump at, the company’s long term prospects are hard to pass up.

America’s Natural Gas Superhighway

As T. Boone points out, there are big reasons why we need to utilize natural gas in the U.S. It’s more than just another energy source. It’s America’s road to energy independence.

CLNE is T. Boone’s way to capitalize on that dream and put it into action. In fact, the company is currently building “America’s Natural Gas Highway”. This project is set to include a network of approximately 150 LNG truck fueling stations across America.

A Roadmap of Clean Energy Fuel Corp’s Natural Gas Highway

CLNE expects the entire project to be operational in the next two years. And considering the company completed 68 fueling station projects in 2011, it should have no problem staying on track.

Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK) has even agreed to provide CLNE with $150 million over the next three years to help pay for the project.

But CLNE isn’t stopping there. It also just inked a 10-year strategic partnership agreement with Saddle Creek Corporation to build natural gas fueling stations at existing Saddle Creek locations. This will help increase CLNE’s presence in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas.

The Road Ahead

For the time being, until CLNE increases its margins and it’s clear it can build out “America’s Natural Gas Highway” on time, I might be hesitant to pick up shares – especially with the insanity of the politics in Washington.

But for long term investors who aren’t looking for a quick profit, CLNE is could be a great opportunity to benefit from what appears to be an inevitable switch to the use of natural gas in vehicles in the United States.

Good Investing,

Mike Kapsch

Article by Investment U

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox (Dublin) – Some economists and analysts have claimed that the euro is set to encounter weakness as the debt crisis is reignited by the austerity-driven spending cuts in Italy and Spain. They have claimed that the euro zone may be dragged into a recession which might reverberate to the rest of the world. There are some currency strategists who have indicated that the euro will drop by more than 5 percent through the year.

Fears on the rise of the borrowing costs of Spain and Italy were spurred by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi who indicated that the euro zone economy faced a downside risk due to these two countries current debt situation. Moreover, some analysts have indicated that the effects of the LTROs have faded and the economy may face some hard time in the second quarter. According Nick Bennenbroek who is a renowned currency strategist, the reason why the euro gained in the first quarter was because of the enormous progress made in dealing with the Greece debt crisis. However, now that the Greece crisis seems to be on the rear view, the market has shifted the attention to other peripheral countries such as Italy, Spain and Portugal.

In the Asian session, the euro increased against the greenback by 0.2 percent to trade at $1.3131 and gained against the yen by 0.1 percent to trade at 106.90 yen. The sentiments from the BOJ that it would not add stimulus may be seen as the reason for the increase of the euro against the yen while negative sentiments and the lower than expected NFP data has pushed the dollar lower against the euro.

The euro has gained 2.95 percent over the first quarter of the year mostly due to the successful international bailout of Greece. The LTROs provided by the European Central Bank have also aided the 17-nation currency to gain over the first three months. However, this effect will continue to fade in the coming months hence pushing the euro to the downside.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox

By TraderVox.com

Tradervox (Dublin) – The Bank of Japan has moved to dispel speculations of an additional stimulus which had led to the Nation’s currency decline since the week started. The Asian stocks declined and boosted demand for safe haven currency hence increasing the demand for the yen. The dollar index also decreased the as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke indicated that the US economy if far from complete recovery. This has increased speculations that the Fed might make the third round of quantitative easing. These sentiments first reemerged in the market after employment data showed that employers added 120k jobs against an estimate of 205k.

The south pacific dollars also declined after the decision by the BOJ to hold stimulus. They were also affected by the negative economic prospects from China showing that the country’s economy is declining. The euro almost touched a three-month low against the sterling pound which is seen as a result of negative sentiments about Spain and Italy. The data expected from Germany and ECB statements this week might change the bearish trend of the euro balancing GBP/EUR pair. Investors will also be looking at the Italy and France auctions to be held this week.

According to Minori Uchida, a Senior Analysts at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, the BOJ will have a hard time adding to monetary easing since it requires a good reason. It might get this reason if the USDJPY pair falls below the 80 level-mark. In its decision, the BOJ kept the interest rate of up to 0.1 percent and left its asset purchases fund at 30 trillion. In their meeting, the board members did not mention any monetary easing hence easing fears that the bank would embark on an additional stimulus package.

The yen strengthened against the euro by 0.6 percent to trade at 106.76. The yen rose against the dollar by 0.2 percent to trade at 81.34 yen per dollar during the London session. However, the US dollar was unaffected against the euro selling at $1.3125 per euro. The positive reports expected from the US are expected to give the greenback some strength.

Disclaimer
Tradervox.com is not giving advice nor is qualified or licensed to provide financial advice. You must seek guidance from your personal advisors before acting on this information. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. Opinions expressed at Tradervox.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Tradervox.com or its management. 

Article provided by TraderVox.com
Tradervox.com is a Forex News Portal that provides real-time news and analysis relating to the Currency Markets.
News and analysis are produced throughout the day by our in-house staff.
Follow us on twitter: www.twitter.com/tradervox

London Gold Market Report
from Ben Traynor
BullionVault
Wednesday April 2012, 07:00 EDT

DOLLAR prices to buy gold hovered at just under $1660 an ounce during most of Wednesday morning’s London trading – up around 1.5% for the week so far – as European stock markets recovered some ground following yesterday’s losses, commodities were broadly flat and government bond prices fell.

Gold prices rallied in yesterday’s US trading, hitting a high of $1663 per ounce.

Silver meantime held above $31.50 an ounce – though it remains below where it started the week.

“This lessens the short-term bearish posture,” says the latest technical analysis note from bullion bank Scotia Mocatta.

“However, we would like to see another close higher before shifting to bullish.”

US stock markets meantime fell in Tuesday’s trading, as markets continued to digest Friday’s disappointing nonfarm payrolls report.

“If weak [economic] data continues, the Fed will have to intervene again to stimulate consumption,” reckons Jeremy Friesen, Hong Kong-based commodity strategist at Societe Generale.

“The next couple of years will be really challenging for global growth and central banks will be relied on as a crutch to get us through.”

Spain’s prime minister Mariano Rajoy is due to speak to members of his People’s Party this afternoon as he tries to gather support for spending cuts aimed at reducing the government deficit to 3% of GDP next year.

“Without a doubt, a good part of Spain’s future is at stake,” he told Spain’s upper house of parliament yesterday.

“The problem is that the markets can lend or decide not to lend.”

Benchmark yields on 10-Year Spanish government bonds breached 6% this morning, before easing lower. This is the first time Spanish yields have been above this level since December, and the first time since the European Central Bank launched the first of its two three year longer term refinancing operations that month.

Spain’s 10-Year bond yields set a Euro era record last November when they spiked above 6.7%.
“The idea that Spain is going to be able to avoid a bailout is going to be tested over the next few months,” reckons Harvinder Sian, senior interest rate strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland in London.

“We think the market will smash [Spanish bond yields] back to the highest levels we’ve seen and go beyond that.”

Italy meantime saw its borrowing costs nearly double this morning when it sold €8 billion of 12-month bills at a yield of 2.84% – up from 1.492% for a similar auction last month.

A further €3 billion of debt due to mature in July next year was sold at 1.249% – compared to 0.492% last month.

Over in Asia, Hong Kong exported nearly 39.7 tonnes of gold bullion to China in February – a 20% increase on the previous month – according to Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department data.

In the first two months of 2012, China has imported 72.6 tonnes of gold from Hong Kong – a 589% increase on the same period last year. Chinese gold imports from Hong Kong are widely regarded as a proxy for overall imports.

“At this point [however] I don’t think China’s gold demand growth this year will be as strong as last year,” says Dick Poon, manager at precious metals group Heraeus in Hong Kong, adding that many people in China prefer to hold onto cash than buy gold.

Figures published Monday show that China’s consumer price inflation index rose by 3.6% year-on-year in March – up from 3.2% in February but below the 3.9% average rate of inflation in the first two months of this year.

Ordinary Chinese however appear to be becoming increasingly skeptical of the official figures.

China is due to publish its latest economic growth figures on Friday. The Asian Development Bank forecasts that these will show an annual growth rate of around 8.5% – down from9.2% for 2011.

In the US meantime, Rick Santorum has ended his bid to become the Republican presidential nominee for this November’s election.

Ben Traynor
BullionVault

Gold value calculator   |   Buy gold online at live prices

Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK’s longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics.

(c) BullionVault 2011

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.