Archive for Opinions

Week Ahead: NAS100 braced for more pain?

By ForexTime 

  • NAS100 ↓ over 4% this week
  • Index set to be rocked by various forces
  • Big tech earnings & key US data in focus
  • Watch out for geopolitical tensions
  • Key level of interest at 17,000

The week ahead may present fresh trading opportunities due to top-tier data and big tech earnings:

Monday, 22nd April

  • CN50: China loan prime rates
  • TWN: Taiwan export orders, jobless rate
  • EU50: Eurozone consumer confidence
  • EUR: ECB President Christine Lagarde speech

Tuesday, 23rd April

  • EU50: Eurozone S&P Global PMI’s
  • GER40: Germany S&P Manufacturing PMI
  • JP225: Japan Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI
  • SG20: Singapore CPI
  • TWN: Taiwan industrial production
  • UK100: UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI
  • SEK: Riksbank Governor Erik Thedeen speech
  • NAS100: Tesla, PepsiCo earnings

Wednesday, 24th April  

  • AU200: Australia CPI
  • CAD: Canada retail sales
  • EUR: Germany IFO business climate
  • NZD: New Zealand trade
  • CAD: BoC policy meeting minutes
  • US30: IBM, Boeing earnings
  • NAS100: Meta Platforms earnings

Thursday, 25th April

  • US500: US Q1 GDP, initial jobless claims
  • EU50: Airbus earnings
  • CHF: SNB issues first quarter results
  • NAS100: Microsoft, Alphabet earnings

Friday, 26th April

  • JPY: BoJ rate decision, Tokyo CPI, inflation & GDP forecasts
  • SG20: Singapore industrial production, home prices
  • USD: US March PCE report, University of Michigan consumer sentiment
  • US500: Exxon Mobil earnings
  • US30: Chevron earnings
  • CHF: SNB President Thomas Jordan speech

FXTM’s NAS100 which tracks the underlying benchmark Nasdaq 100 index is under the spotlight after shedding over 4% this week.

A combination of geopolitical risk and concerns about higher-for-longer US rates have rocked the index, with bears back in the picture.

More volatility could be on the horizon, and here are 4 reasons why:

     1) Geopolitical Risk

On top of the list is the developments in the Middle East.

Geopolitical jitters are likely to keep markets edgy in the week ahead. In the latest news, there have been reports of Israel launching a strike on Iran early Friday in retaliation for last weekend’s drone and missile attack.

  • Should tensions escalate further, risk aversion could drag the NAS100 lower.
  • Signs of easing tensions may lift sentiment, potentially lending support to the NAS100.

 

    2) Big Tech earnings

4 of the so-called “Magnificent 7” tech titans are due to report their latest quarterly results.

Given how the combined weightings of Tesla, Meta Platforms, Microsoft and Alphabet represent over 20% of the Nasdaq 100, their result could spark volatility. Artificial intelligence will remain focus with investors looking for solid earnings to justify the AI-driven gains in recent months.

  • A set of positive earnings may trigger a rebound on the NAS100
  • Earnings that fall short of expectations may deal another blow to the index.

 

    3) Heavy hitting US data

The incoming US Q1 GDP report and PCE data are likely to influence bets around when the Fed will start cutting rates in 2024.

Considering how tech stocks remain sensitive to interest rate expectations, this could mean more volatility for the NAS100. Earlier this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell dropped hawkish remarks which further dampened Fed cut expectations.

Traders are currently pricing in a 50% probability of a 25-basis point Fed cut by July with this jumping to 93% by September.

  • The NAS100 may extend losses if US data reinforces the case for “ higher-for-longer” rates.
  • Signs of cooling price pressure and disappointing GDP could boost Fed cut bets, supporting the NAS100 as a result.

 

    4) Technical forces 

NAS100 is under pressure on the daily charts with the index respecting a bearish channel.  Prices are trading below the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA while the MACD trades below zero.

  • A solid breakdown and daily close below the 17,000 level may trigger a selloff towards 16,600 and the 200-day SMA at 16,330.
  • Should 17,000 prove to be reliable support, this may open a path back towards the 100-day SMA at 17,400 and 17,800.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Renewable energy innovation isn’t just good for the climate — it’s also good for the economy

By Deborah de Lange, Toronto Metropolitan University 

As the climate crisis escalates, there are urgent and difficult choices that need to be made to drastically reduce our carbon emissions before more irreparable damage is done.

Many have argued the energy industry needs to change to reduce carbon emissions, but one concern that remains is the consequence this will have on economic prosperity.

Discussions vary across interest groups. Do we need to outright replace the fossil fuel industry with the renewable energy industry as soon as possible? Should we slowly phase out fossil fuels while making clean renewable replacements? Or, should we continue with a powerful fossil fuel industry while separately growing a renewable industry in parallel?

How these different choices could impact our economies seems unclear, and it is this lack of clarity that opens up the field for frustrating discussions. At the recent COP28 climate summit in the United Arab Emirates, the conference president shockingly said that there is “no science” behind any decision to phase-out fossil fuels from our energy systems — a statement which he later claimed was “misinterpreted.”

My recent research examines energy industry restructuring options for a green transition to renewable energy from an economic perspective.

Although economic analysis is helpful, it is not sufficient on its own for making these important decisions. So, my research also draws on sustainability which involves considering the conditions faced by future generations, and a concept known as equifinality reminding us to keep our minds open to many possible approaches that may satisfy the same objectives.

Renewable energy innovation and GDP

My research indicates that renewable energy innovation contributes to higher GDP. Contrary to some commonly held beliefs, a clean transition is, and has been for at least a decade, good for the economy — even in earlier stages of its development.

My findings also suggest that government and industry support for the fossil fuel industry negatively affects a country’s renewable energy innovation. The two industries are not compatible.

When the fossil fuel industry invests in itself, it also appears to improve GDP, which creates confusion about the best way to ensure economic prosperity while transitioning to clean energy.

But this investment, often made through lobbying, only prolongs the existence of the fossil fuel industry by keeping renewable energy competition out. This creates a false dichotomy between reducing emissions and improving GDP when, in fact, clean innovation can achieve both simultaneously.

My research indicates that clean innovation makes a stronger economy and reduces emissions. If we want to reinforce that dual progress, rather than accepting trade-offs, then we have to stop supporting the fossil fuel industry which aims to slow it down.

Helping renewable energy thrive

Economically speaking, the fossil fuel industry is negatively impacting consumer welfare by maintaining higher-than-necessary prices due to limited competition. This, in turn, bumps up GDP through inflated profits, having subsidised an already dominant polluting industry, reducing clean innovation and delaying cleaner progress — obviously not the way to grow a healthy economy.

In fact, GDP is not a standard of living measure or a measure of innovative competitiveness. To address inflation and the cost of living crisis, we should be promoting more competition across industries. This is a more productive type of capitalism that brings wider benefits to all of us, including more innovation, lower prices, and better products for domestic and export markets.

Government subsidies that boost the fossil fuel industry hinder consumer welfare and the transition to clean energy. Some examples include subsidies to fund more carbon capture and storage technology and the use of fossil energy in hydrogen storage systems.

Instead of funding these backward subsidies, governments should implement pollution taxes while also supporting renewable energy innovation.

My research demonstrates that pollution taxes work well with clean innovation capabilities. Supporting research and innovation in renewable energy and using a carbon tax as a tool can boost the economic benefits of transitioning to clean energy.

The findings of my work suggest that a robust economy is related to industry restructuring so that renewable energy innovation can thrive. Fostering novel scientific discoveries in clean energy innovation should be prioritized while reducing non-competitive industry formations and organizations, such as fossil fuel oligopolies and industry associations.

Making decisions with the future in mind

Increasing public awareness and understanding of fossil fuel industry games is a way to accelerate change. It’s important to recognize that industries at different life cycle stages contribute to the economy in different ways.

A newer rising industry with determined entrepreneurs, like that of renewable energy, invests in innovation to create value. On the other hand, a declining industry plays end-game strategies, like engaging in self-promotional activities, to maintain their existing position and create barriers to new industry entries.

However, consumer welfare increases with competition, not collusion. Economic analysis is not sufficient on its own for decision-making in this area because positive economic outcomes can be generated by different kinds of strategies supporting an industry’s life cycle goals.

Government policy decisions should be made based on economic analyses alongside broader sustainability criteria. Ignoring the equifinality argument and reverting to discussions about replacing coal with gas as a bridge only ensures fossil fuels remain in use for at least another generation of infrastructure.

Communities should apply sustainability and equifinality lenses to decision-making, understanding that there are many possible means to an end. For example, if a community has specific concerns about one type of renewable energy system, they should explore other alternative clean energy options instead of defaulting to fossil fuels.

An educated public should reject simplistic and single-sided arguments and understand there are usually more nuanced solutions to problems supported by evidence-based analysis. By embracing a more holistic approach, we can develop more sustainable societies by opening up renewable energy possibilities.The Conversation

About the Author:

Deborah de Lange, Associate Professor, Global Management Studies, Toronto Metropolitan University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Stock markets signal a growing gap between Canadian and American clean tech firms

By Yrjo Koskinen, University of Calgary; J. Ari Pandes, University of Calgary, and Nga Nguyen, Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM) 

Canada is one of the largest oil and gas producing nations in the world, and the oil and gas sector is its most important export industry.

With the rapid increase of green energy investments globally, stock markets have begun viewing oil and gas firms in Canada and the United States as mature with an uncertain future — despite recent record profits and increases in stock prices.

A prudent and economically viable energy transition to a low carbon economy is of the utmost importance for the future prosperity of the country. As part of the transition, Canada must become a lucrative destination for clean tech investments.

The International Energy Association reports clean energy investments (including nuclear) are continuing to grow over fossil fuel investments, with US$1.7 trillion invested in clean energy in 2023, compared to US$1.1 trillion in fossil fuels. This trend will only continue in the coming decades.

Our recent analysis of stock market data from 2018 through 2022 provides important information about how capital markets view the risk and return for oil and gas companies and clean tech firms in both countries.

U.S. clean tech firms are valued more

In our study, we examined how stock markets in Canada and the U.S. value traditional energy companies, clean tech companies, and the prospects for both.

Our study suggests there are large differences between the clean tech industries in Canada and the U.S. Clean tech has much better prospects in the U.S., while oil and gas firms in Canada may outlast their American counterparts.

Our report indicates that markets view clean tech firms as growth firms in both Canada and the U.S., despite disappointing stock returns for these companies since 2021. Growth firms are companies that reinvest their current earnings into operations to further expand rapidly and then aim to deliver profits later on.

The valuations are significantly higher in the U.S., suggesting the market sees better long-term prospects for the sector south of the border. Canadian clean tech firms could have problems scaling up and taking advantage of opportunities.

Clean tech firms in the U.S. are also attracting more equity capital, particularly since that country passed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in 2022. The IRA has significantly accelerated investments in clean tech in the U.S.

While Canadian tax credits for clean tech are substantial, they don’t seem to have the same impact on investments as the IRA, perhaps because rules for Canadian tax credits and other incentives are deemed more complex.

The real issue is not Canadian policy for energy transition per se, but rather the complex implementation, uncertainty and lack of clarity of these policies.

Political uncertainty

Opportunities in clean tech exist in Canada, but there is no room for increased regulatory risks. Disagreements between the federal and some provincial governments create uncertainty that hurts investments.

Alberta’s sudden moratorium on renewable energy was not helpful, especially given the province has quickly become a Canadian renewables hotbed. While the province has since lifted the moratorium, its new regulations for the clean tech sector have been criticized as too strict.

Political uncertainty, coupled with more risk-averse business attitudes than in the U.S., is creating unnecessary hurdles for the commercialization of clean tech innovations in Canada.

This should be concerning to many, as Canadian clean tech firms might be tempted to locate their operations south of the border. Consequently, Canadian taxpayer-supported startups may end up creating more wealth in the U.S. than at home.

Meanwhile, Canadian oil and gas companies have recently experienced strong operating performance, and their valuations and stock return performance support this. Interestingly, Canadian energy firms are valued higher relative to profits than their U.S. counterparts, which is counter to popular opinion among Canadian energy sector pundits.

One reason for the more optimistic valuations is the impending completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline and the resulting increase in the capacity to export heavy oil from the oil sands. There is no doubt that the energy sector will continue to contribute to the Canadian economy, at least in the medium run. The key question is: for how long?

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions

The oil and gas sector must reinvest more of its profits into emissions-reducing technologies. However, if Canadian policies and incentives do not support enough investment return prospects, the sector will continue to under-invest in energy transition. In particular, the tax incentives should be made easier for small- and medium-sized companies to access.

Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will be critical in continuing to attract financing and generating profits beyond 2030. The oil and gas sector has been criticized for slow progress in this regard, but the recent announcement of a regulatory application for a carbon capture project by oilsands producers with the Alberta Energy Regulator is certainly encouraging.

While competing with the U.S. for clean tech investments and reducing GHG emissions in the oil and gas sector are challenging, Canadian firms should continue to embrace opportunities. Both industries require predictable, stable and clear regulatory environments to provide the certainty investors and companies need to continue to invest in Canada.

Our success as a nation depends on it.The Conversation

About the Author:

Yrjo Koskinen, BMO Professor of Sustainable and Transition Finance, University of Calgary; J. Ari Pandes, Associate Professor of Finance, University of Calgary, and Nga Nguyen, Assistant Professor, Department of Finance, Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM)

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Trade Of The Week: Bitcoin Halving vs. Geopolitical Fears

By ForexTime 

  • Big week for “OG” crypto
  • Halving event looms large
  • Watch out for geopolitical tensions
  • Prices under pressure on D1 chart
  • Key levels at $61500, $65000 and $68000

In case you missed the memo, Bitcoin’s halving is almost here!

This is a significant event that reduces the mining rewards for the “OG” crypto by half.

But before we cover what, when, why and how to prepare for this event…

Watch out for geopolitical tensions.

Bitcoin along with other cryptocurrencies may be influenced by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

On Saturday, Bitcoin prices tumbled over 8% as risk aversion soured appetite for riskier assets. The “OG” crypto along with other altcoins may be in store for more pain despite the upcoming halving if tensions escalate further between Israel and Iran.

With the above said, here is a quick lowdown:

In our 2024 market outlook, bitcoin was one of the assets we picked that could see monster moves.

The approval of Bitcoin ETFs back in January has boosted its mainstream acceptance with fresh inflows propelling the cryptocurrency to all-time highs. In fact, at one point in Q1 prices were up over 70%.

Note: Bitcoin is currently trading 10% away from its all-time high.

    1) What is the Bitcoin halving?

This event reduces the rewards for mining new blocks in the Bitcoin blockchain by half.

It happens approximately every four years with the first halving taking place in 2012.

Fast forward, we a less than a few days away from the fourth halving which will reduce the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.

Note: At launch in 2009, the reward was 50 BTC per block.

    2) When is it expected?

While the exact date of the halving is unknown, it is expected to happen when the total number of bitcoin blocks hit 740,000. Market expectations range between April 19th and April 20th.

    3) Why does it happen?

To put things into context, imagine if you are in the business of mining a precious resource, and suddenly, the rewards received from extracting the resources are halved. Will it still be worth all the effort?

It is the same concept with Bitcoin mining which is designed to slow down supply and increase scarcity – potentially leading to higher prices if demand remains strong.

    4) How can you take advantage of this?

Historically, post-halving periods have seen significant price increases with the one back in May 2020 no exception. Prices appreciated a whopping 230% over a 7-month period, reaching an all-time high just below $29,000 by year end.

Should history repeat itself once again, this could propel Bitcoin to fresh all-time highs over the next few months.

It does not end here…

Given the hype this major event may create and increased attention towards the crypto space, it could indirectly impact altcoins.

So, watch out for Ethereum, Dogecoin, Solana and Avalanche which have shown a positive correlation above 90% to Bitcoin’s move at any given 5-day rolling period over the past 5 years!

On the flip side…

The market reaction to the upcoming Bitcoin halving could be different.

Bitcoin has come a long way since the first halving back in 2012 with much more media coverage and awareness compared to the past. Essentially, the expected bullish reaction to the upcoming halving may already be priced in.

Meaning, traders may end up adopting a ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact’ response to the event with the expected rally delayed or even disappointing expectations.

    5) Technical forces

Prices seem to be under pressure following the sharp selloff witnessed on Saturday. Although the broken symmetrical triangle may support bears, prices are trading within a wide range on the daily charts. Support can be found around $61500 and resistance at $73850.

  • A solid breakout and daily close back above $65000 may open a path towards $68000 and $71000 before bulls challenge $73850.
  • Should $65000 prove to be reliable resistance, this could trigger a selloff towards $61500 and $60000.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Speculators push Japanese Yen bearish bets to highest since 2007

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 9th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Euro & Australian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (15,929 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (10,344 contracts), the Mexican Peso (5,961 contracts), the US Dollar Index (754 contracts) and the Brazilian Real (645 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-18,921 contracts), the British Pound (-15,162 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-9,394 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-6,019 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-2,162 contracts) and Bitcoin (-313 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators push Japanese Yen  bearish bets to highest since 2007

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is recent sharp increase in bearish bets for the Japanese yen speculators. Large speculative yen positions fell for a fourth straight week this week and have declined by a total of -59,829 contracts over these last four weeks.

This week’s yen net position of -162,151 contracts marks the most bearish level since July 26th of 2007 (near the beginning of the Global Financial Crisis) when the net positions were all the way down to -188,077 contracts. The yen speculative position has now been over the -100,000 contract level for nine straight weeks and, overall, the speculator standing has been in a continuous bearish level since March of 2021. This amounts to a total of 161 straight weeks of bearish positions.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) recently ended its negative interest rate policy in March but that only provided a small, short-lived bump to the yen. Since then, the yen exchange rate has experienced very sharp weakness and has now hit a new 34-year low versus the US Dollar. The USD/JPY currency pair (higher USD/JPY is dollar strength/yen weakness) rose to the 153.20 exchange rate to close the week and is now at the highest level since June of 1990. The USD/JPY is up by almost 9 percent since the beginning of the year and has prompted warnings that the BOJ may look to intervene to halt their fast-sliding currency.


Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & British Pound

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (100 percent) and the British Pound (72 percent) lead the currency markets this week. Bitcoin (64 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Swiss Franc (0 percent), the Japanese Yen (0 percent), the US Dollar Index (2 percent), the Australian Dollar (14 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (2.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (0.9 percent)
EuroFX (34.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (27.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (72.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (82.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (0.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (13.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (0.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (20.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (14.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (16.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (13.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (4.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (21.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (39.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (100.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (97.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (30.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (30.0 percent)
Bitcoin (64.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (68.8 percent)


Bitcoin & Mexican Peso top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Bitcoin (27 percent) and the Mexican Peso (23 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies and are the only two markets with positive trends this week.

The New Zealand Dollar (-67 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-44 percent), Swiss Franc (-44 percent) and the Brazilian Real (-26 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-6.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-7.3 percent)
EuroFX (-12.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-21.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-12.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-1.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (-20.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-15.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (-43.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-27.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-43.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-42.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (-11.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-18.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-67.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-40.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (22.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (18.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (-26.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-25.8 percent)
Bitcoin (27.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (34.0 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,142 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 754 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,896 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:66.122.78.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:68.923.85.1
– Net Position:-1,142-4301,572
– Gross Longs:26,7339,1943,617
– Gross Shorts:27,8759,6242,045
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.599.729.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.86.13.9

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 32,723 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 15,929 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,794 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.359.511.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.267.68.7
– Net Position:32,723-52,03219,309
– Gross Longs:175,419383,11475,049
– Gross Shorts:142,696435,14655,740
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):34.269.79.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.814.2-12.3

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 28,252 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -15,162 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,414 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.945.513.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.558.313.7
– Net Position:28,252-27,055-1,197
– Gross Longs:80,00096,19627,814
– Gross Shorts:51,748123,25129,011
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.8 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):72.030.555.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.013.7-12.6

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -162,151 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -18,921 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -143,230 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.667.615.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:64.519.214.1
– Net Position:-162,151156,9425,209
– Gross Longs:47,275219,25650,941
– Gross Shorts:209,42662,31445,732
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 13.5 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.098.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-20.717.914.1

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -31,764 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,394 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,370 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.371.210.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:53.318.328.5
– Net Position:-31,76448,083-16,319
– Gross Longs:16,62664,6659,535
– Gross Shorts:48,39016,58225,854
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 13.9 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.03.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-43.743.2-20.9

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -53,385 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,162 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,223 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.066.314.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.736.116.7
– Net Position:-53,38558,340-4,955
– Gross Longs:34,741127,94427,190
– Gross Shorts:88,12669,60432,145
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.8 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):14.387.911.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-43.636.8-15.3

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -92,341 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,344 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102,685 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.672.510.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:58.823.814.8
– Net Position:-92,341101,610-9,269
– Gross Longs:30,556151,42121,567
– Gross Shorts:122,89749,81130,836
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 13.0 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.788.530.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.98.63.4

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -13,547 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,019 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,528 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.470.25.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:48.541.49.9
– Net Position:-13,54716,239-2,692
– Gross Longs:13,72639,5152,862
– Gross Shorts:27,27323,2765,554
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.7 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.980.319.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-67.070.0-65.2

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 139,691 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,961 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 133,730 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:61.335.92.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.282.61.0
– Net Position:139,691-144,4534,762
– Gross Longs:189,880111,1587,836
– Gross Shorts:50,189255,6113,074
– Long to Short Ratio:3.8 to 10.4 to 12.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.041.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:22.5-21.7-2.0

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,616 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 645 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,261 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:61.431.96.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:66.231.02.4
– Net Position:-2,6165312,085
– Gross Longs:33,44017,3843,418
– Gross Shorts:36,05616,8531,333
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):30.867.853.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-26.225.70.2

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -153 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -313 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 160 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:81.15.35.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:81.68.22.4
– Net Position:-153-838991
– Gross Longs:23,5721,5441,699
– Gross Shorts:23,7252,382708
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.6 to 12.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):64.143.435.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:27.3-45.8-0.4

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Speculator Extremes: Silver, Peso & Coffee lead Bullish Positions

By InvestMacro 

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on April 9th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)


Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Silver


The Silver speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Silver speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 58.7 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 53,212 net contracts this week with a slight rise of 65 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

 


Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

 


Mexican Peso


The Mexican Peso speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Mexican Peso speculator level is now at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 22.5 this week. The speculator position registered 139,691 net contracts this week with a weekly boost of 5,961 contracts in speculator bets.


Coffee


The Coffee speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Coffee speculator level resides at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 21.8 this week. The overall speculator position was 73,563 net contracts this week with a gain of 6,081 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Gasoline


The Gasoline speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Gasoline speculator level is at a 99.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 41.2 this week. The overall speculator position was 83,347 net contracts this week with a small dip of -376 contracts in the speculator bets.


Steel


The Steel speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Steel speculator level sits at a 91.5 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 6.3 this week.

The speculator position was -1,271 net contracts this week with a decline of -557 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Japanese Yen


The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Japanese Yen speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -20.7 this week. The overall speculator position was -162,151 net contracts this week with a sharp drop by -18,921 contracts in the speculator bets.


Swiss Franc


The Swiss Franc speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Swiss Franc speculator level is also at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -43.7 this week. The speculator position was -31,764 net contracts this week with a decrease by -9,394 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


US Dollar Index


The US Dollar Index speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The US Dollar Index speculator level resides at a 2.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -6.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,142 net contracts this week with a rise by 754 contracts in the speculator bets.


Soybeans


The Soybeans speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Soybeans speculator level is at a 8.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 7.3 this week. The speculator position was -158,477 net contracts this week with an edge lower by -437 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Corn


Finally, the Corn speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Corn speculator level is at a 9.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 5.3 this week. The speculator position was -190,191 net contracts this week with a decline of -8,855 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

The backlash against diversity, equity and inclusion in business is in full force − but myths obscure the real value of DEI

By Adia Harvey Wingfield, Arts & Sciences at Washington University in St. Louis 

Few ideas in business are as misunderstood as DEI.

While opposition to DEI – diversity, equity and inclusion – has a long history, it has picked up steam recently.

In 2023, when Silicon Valley Bank collapsed, detractors claimed that the bank’s focus on DEI was responsible – rather than the bank overinvesting in bonds that suddenly lost much of their value.

Not long afterward, when a wall panel detached from an Alaska Airlines flight at 16,000 feet, opponents claimed without evidence that DEI’s corrosive effects were to blame.

More recently, when a cargo ship lost power and slammed into Baltimore’s Key Bridge, critics suggested that DEI was somehow at fault.

In the face of these attacks, many company leaders are troublingly silent about their commitment to DEI. I believe this is a mistake. It allows misrepresentations to take root, and it reinforces the exclusion and marginalization many workers of color already experience.

As a sociologist who focuses on race, gender and work, I believe this is a pivotal moment for companies to reinforce their commitment to DEI.

A history of DEI

For starters, it’s useful to take stock of how American companies moved to DEI in the first place, and how diversity practices are typically structured.

For the overwhelming majority of U.S. history, workers who weren’t white men weren’t just legally banned from leadership roles; they could be barred from holding any role in an organization.

The formal exclusion of women of all races and men of color didn’t become illegal until the passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. That means that for nearly 200 years after the country’s founding, white men had virtually unrestricted and exclusive access to the levels of power in all organizations.

The objective, meritocratic past that DEI critics imagine is thus a myth. The centuries-long, systematic exclusion of white women and people of color gives lie to the idea that jobs have historically gone only to the most qualified.

After the Civil Rights Act, companies moved to address the new reality that the racial and gender discrimination that had been practiced with impunity for generations was now illegal. Affirmative action policies were one way organizations sought to address past and ongoing discrimination, and many companies, at least for a time, sought to close racial and gender disparities.

But by the 1980s, backlash to these goals was ascendant. Legal decisions such as the Supreme Court’s 1978 Bakke ruling allowed organizations to consider race as one of many factors when they evaluated applicants but specifically outlawed the use of quotas. Companies could thus consider race as part of a package but, contrary to popular opinion, could not hire candidates simply because they were Black (or from another marginalized group).

They could, however, consider diversity as a compelling interest that justified using race as one of a variety of factors in making decisions about hiring. A company that had no Black workers on its entire staff could thus seek to diversify, taking race into account alongside experience, qualifications, education and other criteria when considering a candidate.

What this hypothetical company could not do is simply hire a Black worker based exclusively on their race.

Diversity initiatives today

In the wake of ongoing backlash, most companies today have moved even further from trying to alleviate ongoing racial and gender disparities. Instead, they embrace the form of DEI that’s under harsh criticism today.

But today’s DEI doesn’t necessarily entail a focus on hiring or promoting more Black workers. It doesn’t even always focus on race. Instead, many DEI managers have sought to focus their efforts more broadly on diversity of thought, region or opinion as a way to avoid the kind of pushback they’re encountering today.

Additionally, companies often rely heavily on DEI practices such as mandatory diversity training or brief workshops with external consultants that actually depress the numbers of Black workers – and other workers of color – in leadership roles.

Today’s critics cast DEI as unfairly advantaging unqualified Black workers, but the reality is that companies stopped focusing on closing racial disparities long ago.

The numbers bear this out. While white men constitute only 30% of the U.S. population, as of 2017 they made up 80% of members of Congress, 85% of corporate executive officers, 95% of Fortune 500 CEOs and 97% of heads of venture capital firms.

The business case for diversity

Clearly, DEI is not reshaping America’s most powerful institutions in a way that places significant numbers of Black workers in leadership roles.

Instead, researchers know that obstacles such as hiring discrimination, wage inequality, hostile organizational cultures and blocked routes to advancement still persist for highly qualified, skilled and motivated Black workers.

The irony is that the data shows very clearly that diversity is correlated with clear benefits to organizations. Companies with more racial and gender diversity among managers boast more profitability and more innovation than those without. They have advantages in recruitment, employee satisfaction and responding to market changes and consumer needs.

Organizations that are genuinely committed to DEI aren’t losing sight of the big picture; rather, they’re investing in their long-term financial success.

For purely self-interested reasons, then, companies should be offering a full-throated defense of DEI. Instead, they’ve been in retreat.

For example, law firms are walking back programs designed to attract lawyers of color, even though the legal profession is overwhelmingly made up of white workers. Similarly, efforts to increase venture capital funding to Black women are under attack, even though in 2018 less than 1% of a total of US$130 billion raised went to firms headed by women of color. And major tech companies are shifting resources away from post-2020 investments in DEI, even though Black workers remain significantly underrepresented in that industry as well.

DEI practices that work

It doesn’t have to be this way. Companies can still rely on evidence-based DEI practices that show results. One approach involves establishing mentoring programs that are open to everyone. Another is cross-training workers so they can build their skills in various parts of a company while at the same time broadening their networks. And a third tack includes investing in flexible, family-friendly workplace policies that send a message to workers that they and their needs matter.

None of these programs are reserved for members of any particular racial group, so they’re within the bounds of the law. The beauty of this approach is that even though these initiatives are race-neutral, research indicates they benefit workers of color more than mandating annual diversity training.

In addition to using measures like these that work, I believe it’s important for corporate leaders to stand up for DEI precisely because it’s under threat.

Some are doing this already. Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase recently described himself as a “full-throated, red-blooded, patriotic, unwoke, capitalist CEO” who still plans to maintain the bank’s commitment to DEI, particularly when it comes to the approaches that are shown to net results. The celebrity businessman Mark Cuban has been similarly outspoken in support of DEI, unequivocally describing it as “good for business.”

Given that research shows workforce diversity helps companies boost profits, it’s surprising to me that more leaders don’t take this approach. The alternative is letting a false narrative that imperils their growth go unchallenged.The Conversation

About the Author:

Adia Harvey Wingfield, Professor of Sociology, Arts & Sciences at Washington University in St. Louis

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Week Ahead: Time for stock index “slowpokes” to catch up?

By ForexTime 

  • UK100 now less than 0.2% away from all-time peak!
  • 3 stock index “laggards” could find reasons to catch up next week
  • MONDAY: US30 (+2% ytd) needs a boost from Goldman Sachs earnings
  • TUESDAY: CN50 (+3.6% ytd) bulls require rosier Chinese economic data
  • WEDNESDAY: UK100 (+3.7% ytd) needs slowing CPI to stay above 8k

REMINDER: 11 of FXTM’s 18 stock indices have reached their respective record highs so far in 2024.

However, we could see that tally reach 12 very soon (hint: the “answer” lies towards the end of this article).

 

In assessing the various stock indexes around the world, obviously not all are created equal.

 

Broadly speaking, there are the outperformers:

  • US500: up 9% year-to-date
  • EU50: +10.9%
  • TWN: +11.9%
  • NETH25: +13.4%
  • JAP225: +18.1%

 

At the other end of the spectrum, there are others that are clearly lagging behind their peers, with more conservative year-to-date gains:

  • US30: +2%
  • UK100: +3.4%
  • CN50: +3.6%

 

Over the coming week, these 3 events could either boost, or further dampen, the above-listed “laggards”:

 

1) US30 index: Goldman Sachs earnings (Monday, April 15th)

Wall Street banking giant, Goldman Sachs, is the 3rd-largest member of the US30 stock index.

NOTE: The US30 tracks the benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average index a.k.a. the Dow

Goldman Sachs alone accounts for 6.8% of the Dow!

And at the time of writing, markets predict that Goldman Sachs’s share prices could move 3.4%, either up or down, once US stock markets reopen after the bank has released its earnings.

Hence, the market’s reaction to Goldman Sachs’s earnings could have a large impact on the US30’s performance.

  • Better-than-expected earnings for Goldman Sachs could lift the US30 towards its 50-day simple moving average (SMA).
  • Worse-than-expected earnings for Goldman Sachs could sink the US30 towards its 100-day SMA, where also lies the psychologically-important 38,000 line.

 

 

2) CN50 index: China’s key economic data releases (Tuesday, April 16th)

The world’s second-largest economy is due to release its 1Q GDP data, alongside last month’s performance for industrial production, retail sales, retail sales, and property investment.

Essentially, this coming Tuesday …

Investors and traders are about to be hit with a lot of information on how the Chinese economy is faring right now.

Note that the CN50 index’s performance is very much tied to the overall health of the Chinese economy.

After all, stocks within the financial, consumer staples, and industrials sectors combine to account for two-thirds (67.8%) of the entire CN50 index.

Hence, no surprise that the CN50 has lagged, given the economic challenges that China’s currently facing.

  • If Tuesday’s data releases come in better-than-expected, this could send CN50 back above the psychologically-important 12,000 mark and past its 200-day SMA.
  • However, evidence of a still-sluggish Chinese economy may keep the CN50 index subdued below its 50-day SMA, and potentially on a path towards that end-Feb/early-March low of 11,686.3.

 

 

3) UK100 index: UK March consumer price index (Wednesday, April 17th)

NOTE: The consumer price index (CPI) measures inflation in an economy.

Economists predict that the March UK CPI rose by:

  • 2.9% year-on-year (March 2024 vs. March 2023)
  • 0.4% month-on-month (March 2024 vs. February 2024)

Recall that the UK100 index has an inverse relationship with the British Pound (GBP).

NOTE: When GBP goes up, the UK100 tends to fall, and vice versa.

This inverse relationship has been particularly evident over the past month:

The primary reason for the price moves in the above chart (GBPUSD vs. UK100) is because …

Markets are now betting that the Bank of England’s (BOE) interest rate CUTS will be brought forward.

Such revised expectations have dragged GBPUSD to its year-to-date low closer to 1.2500, while the UK100 has made multiple breaches of the psychologically-important 8,000 mark.

  • Higher-than-expected CPI figures, that force the BOE to delay its rate cuts, could strengthen Sterling and drag the UK100 back below the 8k mark.
  • Lower-than-expected CPI figures, that allow the BOE to bring forward its rate cuts, could weaken GBP and help keep the UK100 above 8,000.

 

At the time of writing (Friday, April 12th) …

The UK100 index is less than 0.2% below its all-time intraday high of 8051.7, registered on February 16th, 2023.

READ MORE: UK100 index teases record high (April 2nd, 2024)

 

If things go the UK100’s way either later today, or in the Week Ahead …

Then we’d see 12 of FXTM’s stock indices having notched fresh record highs so far this year!

 

 

For further consideration, here’s a more comprehensive list of scheduled events that could move various asset classes over the coming week:

 

Monday, April 15

  • CNH: PBoC rate decision
  • EUR: Eurozone February industrial production
  • USD index: US March retail sales; speeches by Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly
  • US30 index: Goldman Sachs earnings

 

Tuesday, April 16

  • CN50 index: China 1Q GDP; March industrial production, retail sales, unemployment, property investment
  • EU50 index: Eurozone April ZEW survey; February trade balance
  • GBP: UK February unemployment
  • RUS2000 index: US March industrial production
  • CAD: Canada March CPI
  • US500 index: Morgan Stanley, Bank of America earnings

 

Wednesday, April 17

  • NZD: New Zealand 1Q CPI
  • JP225 index: Japan March trade balance
  • SG20 index: Singapore March exports
  • NETH25 index: Eurozone March CPI (final)
  • UK100 index: UK March CPI; speech by BOE Governor Andrew Bailey
  • US400 index: Fed Beige Book; speeches by Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman

 

Thursday, April 18

  • AUD: Australia March unemployment; 1Q business confidence
  • TWN index: TSMC earnings
  • USD: US weekly initial jobless claims; speeches by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, New York Fed President John Williams, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic

 

Friday, April 19

  • JPY: Japan March national CPI
  • GER40 index: Germany March PPI
  • GBP: UK March retail sales
  • USD: Speech by Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee

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Target Thursdays: Bitcoin, US400, RUS2000, and EURGBP

By ForexTime 

  • Bitcoin still climbing this CPI week; up over 2%/$1,600 since Sunday
  • US400 and RUS2000 stock indices showed larger-CPI reactions, as predicted
  • FXTM Trading Signals: EURGBP reaches all 4 Targets

 

The monthly US CPI release has come and gone.

The highly-anticipated set of US economic data exceeded market expectations by 0.1 percentage points each:

  • Headline CPI in March 2024 vs. March 2023 (year-on-year): 3.5%
    Higher than the forecasted 3.4%; higher than February’s 3.2% year-on-year figure
  • Headline CPI in March 2024 vs. February 2024 (month-on-month): 0.4%
    Higher than the forecasted 0.3%; higher than February’s 0.4% month-on-month figure
  • Core CPI (excluding food and energy prices) year-on-year: 3.8%
    Higher than the forecasted 3.7%; matching February’s 3.8% year-on-year figure
  • Core CPI month-on-month: 0.4%
    Higher than the forecasted 0.3%; matching February’s 0.4% month-on-month figure

The higher-than-expected CPI numbers pushed back bets that the Fed can cut US interest rates as soon as June 2024.

 

As we’d written about extensively, this CPI numbers certainly jolted various asset classes on Wednesday, April 10th.

Now, we look back at a couple of instruments that performed as per outlined in our recently published Daily Market Analysis articles:

 

 

1) Bitcoin still rising so far this CPI week

What we wrote:

So far in 2024, cryptos have risen every week that the highly-anticipated US inflation data is released!

(Trade of the Week: Cryptos to rise again this CPI week?; published Monday, April 8th)

 

What’s happened since?

At the time of writing, Bitcoin has risen by over 2% (or about $1600) so far this week since Sunday’s closing price of $69,315.13.

Even though other risk assets (such as stocks) fell after the hotter-than-expected US CPI, Bitcoin managed to rebound after its own initial post-CPI selloff.

If Bitcoin can continue shrugging off the US CPI’s impact and adhere to this trend of posting a weekly advance for each week so far in 2024 that has featured a US CPI announcement, that could translate into further gains for Bitcoin bulls for the rest of this week.

Still, the astute trader would note the stubborn resistance region around $71,400 which has capped Bitcoin’s upside since week of March 25th.

The world’s oldest crypto has to vanquish the $71,400 resistance in order to have another shot at posting a new record high.

 

 

 

2) US400 and RUS2000 indices saw massive post-CPI moves

What we wrote:

“On CPI days, the US400 typically sees a 39% larger-than-average move, which translates into 13 index points higher than average (average: 34 index points).
“On CPI days, the RUS2000 typically sees a 27.8% larger-than-average move, which translates into 7 index points higher than average (average: 25 index points).
” … stock markets may be pulled back lower if US inflation is proving stubborn, …”

(“Smaller” US stock indexes, bigger CPI reactions?; published Tuesday, April 9th)

 

What’s happened since?

  • US400

This mid-sized US stock index posted a 93.8 index point difference between its highest and lowest traded prices in the 1 hour immediately following the US CPI release.

Those 93.8 index points are almost 3x the average daily intraday difference (highest price – lowest price) of 34 index points over the past 12 months.

 

  • RUS2000

This “small” US stock index posted a 86 index point difference between its highest and lowest traded prices in the 1 hour immediately following the US CPI release.

Those 86 index points are MORE THAN TRIPLE the average daily intraday difference (highest price – lowest price) of 25 index points over the past 12 months.

 

Given that massive post-CPI move downwards for US stock indices, as was expected in light of the hotter-than-expected US inflation data …

This would’ve been a major payoff for those who had “short” positions (bet that prices would go down) on either the US400 or RUS2000 stock indices!

 

 

 

3) FXTM Trading Signals: EURGBP bags over 100 points

Every week day, we publish the FXTM Trading Signals twice daily:

  • EU session: 6:00AM GMT
  • US session: 12:30PM GMT

This EURGBP signal, published just today (Thursday EU session), has already reached all 4 Targets!

NOTE: FXTM Trading Signals are available for clients under the MyFXTM portal (published within the Trading Services section)

 

FXTM Signal: EURGBP M15 – how it started …

 

FXTM Signal: EURGBP M15 – how it ended …

 

But wait, there could be more volatility ahead for EURGBP!

The European Central Bank (ECB) is due to announce its policy decision at 12:15PM GMT later today (Thursday, April 11th)

To be clear, markets roundly expect the ECB to leave its benchmark rates unchanged at its record high of 4%.

However, markets will be keen to find out if the ECB is now more certain about CUTTING its benchmark rates by 25-basis points in June 2024.

Such clues may be derived out of ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference due at 12:45PM GMT, which is 30 minutes after the ECB’s policy announcement.

 

EURGBP: Potential Post-ECB Scenarios

  • If President Lagarde lends further credence to the thought of a June rate cut by the ECB, that could prompt EURGBP to revisit the 0.8550 level.
  • However, if President Lagarde unexpectedly pushes back against bets for a June rate cut, that should trigger a greater rebound for EURGBP back above the 0.8570 line.

 

 

Feel like you missed out on these profits?

You can keep following our “Daily Market Analysis” for fresh trading ideas and opportunities across global financial markets.


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Brain scans of Philly jazz musicians reveal secrets to reaching creative flow

By John Kounios, Drexel University and Yvette Kounios, Widener University 

Flow, or being “in the zone,” is a state of amped-up creativity, enhanced productivity and blissful consciousness that, some psychologists believe, is also the secret to happiness. It’s considered the brain’s fast track to success in business, the arts or any other field.

But in order to achieve flow, a person must first develop a strong foundation of expertise in their craft. That’s according to a new neuroimaging study from Drexel University’s Creativity Research Lab, which recruited Philly-area jazz guitarists to better understand the key brain processes that underlie flow. Once expertise is attained, the study found, this knowledge must be unleashed and not overthought in order for flow to be reached.

As a cognitive neuroscientist who is senior author of this study, and a university writing instructor, we are a husband-and-wife team who collaborated on a book about the science of creative insight. We believe that this new neuroscience research reveals practical strategies for enhancing, as well as elucidating, innovative thinking.

Jazz musicians in flow

The concept of flow has fascinated creative people ever since pioneering psychological scientist Mihály Csíkszentmihályi began investigating the phenomenon in the 1970s.

Yet, a half-century of behavioral research has not answered many basic questions about the brain mechanisms associated with the feeling of effortless attention that exemplifies flow.

The Drexel experiment pitted two conflicting theories of flow against each other to see which better reflects what happens in people’s brains when they generate ideas. One theory proposes that flow is a state of intensive hyperfocus on a task. The other theory hypothesizes that flow involves relaxing one’s focus or conscious control.

The team recruited 32 jazz guitarists from the Philadelphia area. Their level of experience ranged from novice to veteran, as quantified by the number of public performances they had given. The researchers placed electrode caps on their heads to record their EEG brain waves while they improvised to chord sequences and rhythms that were provided to them.

Young man plays guitar while wearing helmet covered in electrodes that measure brain activity
Postdoctoral researcher Yongtaek Oh plays guitar while his EEG is recorded in Drexel University’s Creativity Research Lab.
John Kounios/Creativity Research Lab/Drexel University, CC BY-ND

Jazz improvisation is a favorite vehicle for cognitive psychologists and neuroscientists who study creativity because it is a measurable real-world task that allows for divergent thinking – the generation of multiple ideas over time.

The musicians themselves rated the degree of flow that they experienced during each performance, and those recordings were later played for expert judges who rated them for creativity.

Train intensively, then surrender

As jazz great Charlie Parker is said to have advised, “You’ve got to learn your instrument, then, you practice, practice, practice. And then, when you finally get up there on the bandstand, forget all that and just wail.”

This sentiment aligns with the Drexel study findings. The performances that the musicians self-rated as high in flow were also judged by the outside experts as more creative. Furthermore, the most experienced musicians rated themselves as being in flow more than the novices, suggesting that experience is a precondition for flow. Their brain activity revealed why.

The musicians who were experiencing flow while performing showed reduced activity in parts of their frontal lobes known to be involved in executive function or cognitive control. In other words, flow was associated with relaxing conscious control or supervision over other parts of the brain.

And when the most experienced musicians performed while in a state of flow, their brains showed greater activity in areas known to be involved in hearing and vision, which makes sense given that they were improvising while reading the chord progressions and listening to rhythms provided to them.

In contrast, the least experienced musicians showed very little flow-related brain activity.

Flow vs. nonflow creativity

We were surprised to learn that flow-state creativity is very different from nonflow creativity.

Previous neuroimaging studies suggested that ideas are usually produced by the default-mode network, a group of brain areas involved in introspection, daydreaming and imagining the future. The default-mode network spews ideas like an unattended garden hose spouts water, without direction. The aim is provided by the executive-control network, residing primarily in the brain’s frontal lobe, which acts like a gardener who points the hose to direct the water where it is needed.

Slide showing views of brain with different areas lit
Views of left and right sides of the brain showing reduced brain activity when experienced musicians were in a state of high flow. These areas include key nodes of the brain’s default-mode network.
John Kounios/Creativity Research Lab/Drexel University, CC BY-ND

Creative flow is different: no hose, no gardener. The default-mode and executive-control networks are tamped down so that they cannot interfere with the separate brain network that highly experienced people have built up for producing ideas in their field of expertise.

For example, knowledgeable but relatively inexperienced computer programmers may have to reason their way through every line of code. Veteran coders, however, tapping their specialized brain network for computer programming, may just start writing code fluently without overthinking it until they complete – perhaps in one sitting – a first-draft program.

Coaching can be a help or hindrance

The findings that expertise and the ability to surrender cognitive control are key to reaching flow are supported by a 2019 study from the Creativity Research Lab. For that study, jazz musicians were asked to play “more creatively.” Given that direction, the nonexpert musicians were indeed able to improvise more creatively. That is apparently because their improvisation was largely under conscious control and could therefore be adjusted to meet the demand. For example, during debriefing, one of the novice performers said, “I wouldn’t use these techniques instinctively, so I had to actively choose to play more creatively.”

On the other hand, the expert musicians, whose creative process was baked in through decades of experience, were not able to perform more creatively after being asked to do so. As one of the experts put it, “I felt boxed-in, and trying to think more creatively was a hindrance.”

The takeaway for musicians, writers, designers, inventors and other creatives who want to tap into flow is that training should involve intensive practice followed by learning to step back and let one’s skill take over. Future research may develop possible methods for releasing control once sufficient expertise has been achieved.The Conversation

About the Author:

John Kounios, Professor of Psychological and Brain Sciences, Drexel University and Yvette Kounios, Adjunct Instructor of English and Professional Writing, Widener University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.