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USDJPY: On intervention watch

By ForexTime 

  • Yen weakens to multi-year lows
  • Markets on intervention watch
  • BoJ decision & US data in focus
  • Major resistance at 161.8 golden Fib levels
  • Key levels of interest at 155.00, 154.20 & 21 day SMA

The Yen’s weakness to multi-year lows has left investors on high alert for possible currency intervention.

On Wednesday morning, USDJPY was a whisker away from the psychological 155 level as the dollar gained across the board. It’s worth noting that back in March, there was much discussion around Japanese authorities potentially intervening when the USDJPY pushed above 152. Since then, prices have jumped another 300 pips

Just yesterday, the Japanese Finance Minister issued his strongest warning of the chance of intervention.

So essentially, more volatility could be on the horizon for the USDJPY – especially with the upcoming Bank of Japan rate decision and key US data on Friday.

Shedding more light on the above:

    1) Bank of Japan rate decision

No Changes to monetary policy are expected, so the focus will be directed towards the BoJ’s inflation projections for the next three years. Investors will also be watching how hawkish/dovish Governor Kazuo Ueda sounds.

  • Should the BoJ strike a dovish note, this is likely to weaken the Yen further.
  • A hawkish-sounding BoJ that hints at a potential hike in June could boost the Yen.

Traders are currently pricing in a 40% probability of a 10-basis point hike by June with this jumping to 97% by July.

Note: April’s Tokyo CPI data will also be published on Friday and could influence expectations around what actions the BoJ takes beyond April.

    2) US Q1 GDP & March PCE report

These incoming US data may impact bets around when the Fed will start cutting rates in 2024. Ultimately, if these reports support the case for “higher for longer” rates, the dollar may appreciate and vice versa.

Focusing on the technicals…

From an Elliot wave perspective, USDJPY is in the 3rd impulse wave from the March 11th low at 146.483 and has the 161.8 golden fib level as a measured move objective.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), an indicator computed to highlight overbought zones a condition where the market is saturated with buyers-, shows that USDJPY is overbought. This could limit upside gains with the threat of potential currency intervention inviting bears back into the scene.

  • A solid breakout and daily close above 155.00 may open a path toward the 161.8 golden Fibonacci level at 157.44
  • Should prices remain capped below 155.00, this may trigger a selloff towards 154.20 and the 21-day SMA at 152.96

Bloomberg’s FX model forecasts a 77.5% chance that USDJPY will trade within the 151.99 – 157.32 range over the next one week.


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Euro gains against the dollar amid mixed economic signals

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair rose to 1.0707 on Wednesday, driven by increased local risk appetite and the belief that the currency was significantly oversold against the US dollar. This resurgence indicates a temporary rebalancing in the currency market.

In the US, newly published statistics provide fodder for economic analysis. Sales of new homes in March showed a robust increase of 8.8% month-on-month, climbing to 693,000 from February’s 637,000, surpassing expectations. The year-on-year comparison also reflected strength with an 8.3% increase. Additionally, the weighted average price of a sold house in the US rose to USD 524.8 thousand from USD 488.6 thousand in February, pointing to a market that is still vibrant despite elevated interest rates.

These indicators are inherently pro-inflationary, suggesting that consumer behaviour has adapted well to elevated interest rates. Continued activity in the housing market is likely to sustain inflationary pressures in the US for an extended period. If interest rates were to be lowered, the attractiveness of buying property would increase further, prompting the Federal Reserve to keep higher rates to temper economic overheating.

Despite substantial efforts by the Fed to stabilise price pressures, the US economy shows a high degree of resilience to changed conditions. This adaptability is a mixed blessing, maintaining economic vitality but complicating inflation management.

As long as the Fed keeps interest rates at the current peak of 5.5% per annum, the US dollar will likely retain its strength. Any current weakening of the dollar is seen as a temporary adjustment rather than a trend reversal.

EUR/USD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the EUR/USD pair formed a consolidation range around 1.0666. A correction to 1.0713 occurred after the market exited the range on the upside. The pair is expected to decline to 1.0660 for a retest from above before potentially developing another growth structure towards 1.0733. The movement from 1.0601 is considered a correction of the last decline wave. After completing this corrective phase, a new downward wave to 1.0585 may begin. This outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line is below zero but ascending, while the histograms are at maximums, poised for a decline.

On the H1 chart, after fulfilling the local correction target at 1.0713, a decline to 1.0660 is anticipated. Subsequently, the development of a growth wave to 1.0733, the main correction target, may occur. The Stochastic oscillator, currently below 50, is expected to drop to 20, supporting the potential for further adjustments before any upward movements.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Australian dollar rises on strong economic indicators

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The AUD/USD pair is experiencing upward momentum for the second consecutive day, reaching a one-week high near 0.6453 on Tuesday. This positive movement comes after a period of rapid decline and is supported by encouraging economic data from Australia.

The latest manufacturing PMI report for April significantly contributed to the Australian dollar’s appreciation. It showed an increase to 49.9 points, up from 47.3 the previous month. This improvement brings the manufacturing sector close to the critical 50.0 threshold, distinguishing between the industry’s growth and contraction. Additionally, the services PMI reported the most robust expansion in the last three months, and the private sector experienced its fastest growth in two years during April.

These robust economic reports not only indicate a resilient economy but also carry pro-inflationary implications. They bolster the outlook that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may maintain higher interest rates for an extended period to manage inflationary pressures effectively.

Investors will also pay attention to the upcoming release of inflation statistics later in the week, which will provide further insights into the economic factors influencing the RBA’s monetary policy decisions.

Moreover, the Australian dollar’s gains were further supported by a reduction in investor concerns over geopolitical risks in the Middle East, contributing to a more favourable risk environment.

Technical analysis of AUD/USD

On the H4 chart, the AUD/USD pair completed a declining wave to 0.6362. A corrective movement towards 0.6471 is underway. Upon completion of this correction, a continuation of the downward trend towards 0.6300 is anticipated. The MACD indicator supports this bearish outlook despite its signal line being above zero, which typically suggests growth potential.

On the H1 chart, a consolidation range has been formed around 0.6417. A breakout above this range could lead to a rise towards 0.6471. Following this peak, a new downward wave to 0.6363 is expected. Breaking below this level may pave the way to reach 0.6300. The Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line currently below 80 and pointing downwards, confirms this potential downward trajectory.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Speculators strongly boosting US Dollar bets vs Major Currencies

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 16th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brazilian Real & New Zealand Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as just three out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Brazilian Real (3,517 contracts) with the New Zealand Dollar (1,821 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (213 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-29,430 contracts), the EuroFX (-20,499 contracts), the British Pound (-19,633 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-11,960 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-8,742 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-4,448 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-3,468 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-210 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators strongly boosting US Dollar bets vs Major Currencies

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the overall strength being shown in the speculator’s positioning for the US dollar.

The way the futures markets work for currencies is that every bet for or against a currency is also a bet for against the US dollar. Right now, most of the major currencies are strongly on the defensive in their exchange rates and, especially, in their speculator positions versus the US dollar, underlining the strength of the sentiment for the US currency.

Here are current highlights of the major currencies weakness (US dollar strength):

First up, the Australian dollar (AUD) speculator position is currently over -100,000 contracts for the fourth time out of the last 5 weeks. The all-time record low was reached just last month on March 19th at a total of -107,538 contracts.

The British pound sterling (GBP) contracts have now fallen for four out of the last 5 weeks with the contract level currently at its lowest point since November.

The euro (EUR) currency contracts have decreased in four of the last five weeks as well. The current level is barely positive (+12,224 contracts), falling rapidly (started the year over +100,000 contracts) and now at the lowest level since 2022.

The Japanese yen (JPY) contracts continued to fall this week and have dropped in 13 out of the last 14 weeks. At a total of -165,619 contracts, the current position is at a new lowest standing since 2007.

The Swiss franc (CHF) position has been falling sharply as well. The speculative position for the franc has now declined for 11 consecutive weeks and is at the lowest level since 2019 at -36,212 contracts.

Finally, the Canadian dollar (CAD) has fallen for eight consecutive weeks with a drop this week of -29,430 contracts. The total decrease over just the last 8 weeks has amounted to approximately -82,000 contracts and has brought the current speculative level to the lowest point since 2017.

Helping to keep the US dollar strong is the fading expectations of multiple rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Inflation levels continue to persist in a growing US economy, putting a dent into this year’s rate cut narrative and giving the USD an interest-rate differential boost against it’s major currency counterparts.

The exchange rates of the major currencies are also in a current short-term downtrend vs the USD. The AUD, NZD, GBP, EUR and CHF exchange rates all have dipped this week to the lowest levels since October or November in the latest spot trading data. The JPY, meanwhile, is currently trading at the lowest levels in 34-years.


Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & Bitcoin

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (94 percent) and the Bitcoin (61 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (59 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (0 percent), the Swiss Franc (0 percent), the Japanese Yen (0 percent), the US Dollar Index (3 percent) and the Australian Dollar (6 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (2.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (2.5 percent)
EuroFX (25.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (34.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (59.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (72.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (0.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (2.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (0.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (8.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (0.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (22.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (5.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (13.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (27.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (21.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (94.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (100.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (35.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (30.8 percent)
Bitcoin (60.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (64.1 percent)


Bitcoin & Mexican Peso top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Bitcoin (15 percent) and the Mexican Peso (10 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies and are the only markets with positive trends at the moment.

The New Zealand Dollar (-54 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-48 percent), Swiss Franc (-37 percent) and the British Pound (-33 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-8.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-6.8 percent)
EuroFX (-23.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-12.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-33.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-12.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (-32.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-20.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (-37.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-39.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-47.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-39.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-14.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-11.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-53.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-67.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (10.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (22.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (-9.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-26.2 percent)
Bitcoin (14.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (27.3 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -929 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 213 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,142 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:67.918.210.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:70.021.25.4
– Net Position:-929-1,3092,238
– Gross Longs:29,9118,0404,596
– Gross Shorts:30,8409,3492,358
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.9 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.997.937.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.55.615.9

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 12,224 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -20,499 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,723 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.260.111.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.364.48.7
– Net Position:12,224-28,65416,430
– Gross Longs:178,912395,97973,794
– Gross Shorts:166,688424,63357,364
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):25.578.55.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.025.5-22.4

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 8,619 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -19,633 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,252 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.356.69.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.555.414.5
– Net Position:8,6192,972-11,591
– Gross Longs:71,800129,95721,721
– Gross Shorts:63,181126,98533,312
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 11.0 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.047.335.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-33.037.6-34.0

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -165,619 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,468 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -162,151 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.969.713.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:65.019.014.3
– Net Position:-165,619167,742-2,123
– Gross Longs:49,463230,64245,373
– Gross Shorts:215,08262,90047,496
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 13.7 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.075.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-32.136.0-23.4

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -36,212 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,448 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,764 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.774.310.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:54.417.627.9
– Net Position:-36,21252,956-16,744
– Gross Longs:14,65069,4129,349
– Gross Shorts:50,86216,45626,093
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 14.2 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.01.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-37.538.8-23.3

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -82,815 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -29,430 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,385 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.670.211.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:50.531.715.3
– Net Position:-82,81591,572-8,757
– Gross Longs:37,067166,83427,645
– Gross Shorts:119,88275,26236,402
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.03.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-47.939.1-11.2

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -101,083 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,742 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -92,341 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.072.17.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:61.122.614.2
– Net Position:-101,083116,344-15,261
– Gross Longs:42,365169,33418,142
– Gross Shorts:143,44852,99033,403
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 13.2 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):5.899.115.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.814.9-10.7

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -11,726 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,821 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,547 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.765.55.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:47.342.49.7
– Net Position:-11,72614,570-2,844
– Gross Longs:18,01941,1953,272
– Gross Shorts:29,74526,6256,116
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.5 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):27.176.217.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-53.854.6-43.9

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 127,731 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,960 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 139,691 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:60.336.72.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.782.81.0
– Net Position:127,731-132,1194,388
– Gross Longs:172,573105,0287,388
– Gross Shorts:44,842237,1473,000
– Long to Short Ratio:3.8 to 10.4 to 12.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):94.15.939.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.4-9.3-11.1

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 901 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,517 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,616 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:60.730.94.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:59.233.63.5
– Net Position:901-1,605704
– Gross Longs:35,81218,2032,752
– Gross Shorts:34,91119,8082,048
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.9 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):35.465.341.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.612.2-20.3

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -363 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -210 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -153 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:75.75.15.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:76.96.22.9
– Net Position:-363-313676
– Gross Longs:22,3391,5131,532
– Gross Shorts:22,7021,826856
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.8 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):60.956.728.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:14.9-19.7-4.9

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

British Pound shows signs of recovery amid favourable inflation data

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The British pound sterling is showing signs of recovery, bouncing back from a five-month low, with GBP/USD stabilising around the 1.2470 mark on Thursday. This rebound is attributed to the release of UK inflation data, suggesting a possible monetary policy easing by the Bank of England (BoE).

The UK’s consumer price index (CPI) slowed to 3.2% year-on-year in March, down from 3.4% in February, marking the lowest inflation rate in two and a half years. This slowdown has raised investor optimism regarding potential policy easing by the BoE, particularly since core inflation has also dropped to its lowest since mid-2021. However, persistent inflation in the services sector may lead to cautious deliberation among certain members of the monetary committee.

Meanwhile, representatives from the US Federal Reserve have reiterated that US interest rates are likely to remain high for an extended period. In contrast, the BoE is perceived as relatively stable, potentially initiating monetary policy easing by summer.

The first quarter saw significant pressures from the tight employment market and shocks from rising energy prices, which initially suggested that the BoE might follow the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Fed in lowering interest rates. However, market conditions have shifted considerably. Exchange analysts now anticipate that the ECB might cut interest rates by June, the BoE by September, and the Fed only in Q4.

Technical analysis of GBP/USD

The H4 chart for GBP/USD indicates that after forming a consolidation range of around 1.2547, the pair has reached the target of 1.2450 with a downward exit. A new consolidation range is currently forming above this level. A break below this range may drive prices lower to 1.2380, with a subsequent correction to retest 1.2547 (testing from below) before a possible continuation to 1.2200. This bearish scenario is supported by the MACD oscillator, whose signal line is below zero and is trending downwards.

On the H1 chart, the GBP/USD has completed a decline to 1.2406 and is currently undergoing a correction to 1.2491. Following this correction, a new decline to 1.2381 is anticipated. The Stochastic oscillator, currently above 80, is poised for a sharp decline to the 20 mark, reinforcing the likelihood of further downward movement in the short term.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

EURGBP: Slams into support on hot UK inflation

By ForexTime 

  • Pound boosted by sticky CPI data
  • EURGBP drops over 20 pips
  • Eurozone CPI match initial estimates
  • Watch out for BoE Bailey’s speech
  • Key levels at 50-day SMA, 0.8530 & 0.8505

EURGBP was injected with fresh volatility on Wednesday after UK inflation fell less than expected in March.

The minor currency pair tumbled over 20 pips, dipping below the 0.8530 support as cooling BoE rate cut bets supported the British Pound. More currency movements could be on the horizon, especially when factoring in BoE Governor Andrew Bailey’s speech later today.

Interestingly, traders are now pricing in a 67% probability of a 25-basis point cut by August, with a move fully priced in by November 2024.

Sterling is up against most G10 currencies this week and may extend gains if upcoming data supports the case for “higher for longer” rates.

In other news, there were no changes to the initial estimates of the Eurozone March inflation figures with core CPI at 2.9% YoY. This data is likely to reinforce expectations around the ECB cutting interest rates in June.

Given how the ECB is expected to start cutting rates before the BoE, the EURGBP may remain pressured in the medium to longer term.

Regarding the technicals, prices are trading below the 50-day SMA with 0.8530 acting as a key support and level of interest.

The Average Directional Movement Index (ADX), an indicator that shows the strength of the current market trend signals further downside for the EURGBP.

  • A breakdown below 0.8530 may see 0.8505 along the upward-sloping trendline act as support.
  • Should prices push higher, the 50-day Simple moving average may act as near-term resistance at 0.8548.
  • Above the 50-day SMA is the 21-day Simple moving average at 0.8558.

Bloomberg’s FX model forecasts an 82% chance that EURGBP will trade within the 0.84777 – 0.85965 range over the next one week.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

NZD hits five-month low against strong US dollar

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The New Zealand dollar has plummeted to a five-month low, with the NZD/USD pair touching the 0.5890 mark. This decline was triggered by the release of robust American retail sales data, which raised concerns that the Federal Reserve might delay interest rate cuts expected in 2024.

The prevailing expectation in the stock market is that the Fed will begin its monetary policy easing cycle in September, diverging from the earlier forecast of June. This expectation adjustment has bolstered the US dollar’s position, exerting additional pressure on other currencies.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has maintained its interest rate steady for six consecutive meetings, including a neutral stance in its April meeting. The central bank’s primary objectives are alleviating production capacity pressures and mitigating inflation’s economic impact. Despite signs of weakening economic activity, New Zealand’s annual inflation rate dropped to 4.7% in the quarter ending December – the lowest since Q2 2021. However, inflation remains significantly above the RBNZ’s 1-3% target range.

There are indications that the New Zealand economy entered a technical recession in Q3 2023, with more recent data still awaited.

Technical analysis of NZD/USD

The H4 chart of NZD/USD shows that a consolidation range was established around the 0.5937 level, followed by a downward move to 0.5872. A corrective move back to 0.5900 is possible (testing from below), after which a further decline to 0.5830 is anticipated. This bearish scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line positioned below zero and pointing downwards.

On the H1 chart, the NZD/USD pair continues its downward trajectory towards 0.5854. After completing the decline to 0.5872, a corrective movement to 0.5900 is likely. Subsequently, a new downward phase could target 0.5854, potentially extending towards 0.5830. This outlook is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, currently below 20, with an expected rise to 50, indicating the potential for a temporary corrective upswing before continuing the downward trend.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

US dollar exhibits remarkable strength amid global tensions

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair has experienced a notable decline, currently stabilising around 1.0648. Last week, the pair recorded its most significant weekly gain since 2022, fuelled by the anticipation of persistently high interest rates in the US and escalated conflicts in the Middle East.

The US dollar appreciated by 1.6% over the week against a basket of six major currencies, reaching another 34-year high against the Japanese yen and experiencing its most substantial weekly increase against the British pound since July 2023.

Recent US inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance have tempered expectations for substantial interest rate cuts this year. Initially, six cuts were anticipated at the start of the year, reduced to three in early April, and now just two cuts are forecasted. In contrast, European monetary authorities have hinted at potential rate cuts within the coming months.

Market expectations for the first Fed rate cut have shifted from June to September, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation and uncertainty about whether the economic environment will support easing monetary policies soon. Additionally, the disputes in the Middle East have bolstered the safe-haven appeal of the US dollar, further supporting its strength.

EUR/USD technical analysis

On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the pair formed a consolidation range around 1.0733 before beginning a downward wave to 1.0622. A new consolidation range is currently forming above this level. An upward exit from this range could lead to a corrective move towards 1.0733. Conversely, a downward exit might signal a continuation of the decline to 1.0585. The MACD indicator, with its signal line below zero and directed downwards, supports this bearish scenario.

The H1 chart shows ongoing development in the downward wave towards 1.0585. After completing a rise to 1.0622, the market is currently correcting to 1.0660. Following this correction, a further decline to 1.0585 is anticipated. This bearish outlook is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, currently above 80, with an expected fall to the 20 mark, indicating potential for further declines.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Speculators push Japanese Yen bearish bets to highest since 2007

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 9th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Euro & Australian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (15,929 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (10,344 contracts), the Mexican Peso (5,961 contracts), the US Dollar Index (754 contracts) and the Brazilian Real (645 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-18,921 contracts), the British Pound (-15,162 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-9,394 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-6,019 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-2,162 contracts) and Bitcoin (-313 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators push Japanese Yen  bearish bets to highest since 2007

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is recent sharp increase in bearish bets for the Japanese yen speculators. Large speculative yen positions fell for a fourth straight week this week and have declined by a total of -59,829 contracts over these last four weeks.

This week’s yen net position of -162,151 contracts marks the most bearish level since July 26th of 2007 (near the beginning of the Global Financial Crisis) when the net positions were all the way down to -188,077 contracts. The yen speculative position has now been over the -100,000 contract level for nine straight weeks and, overall, the speculator standing has been in a continuous bearish level since March of 2021. This amounts to a total of 161 straight weeks of bearish positions.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) recently ended its negative interest rate policy in March but that only provided a small, short-lived bump to the yen. Since then, the yen exchange rate has experienced very sharp weakness and has now hit a new 34-year low versus the US Dollar. The USD/JPY currency pair (higher USD/JPY is dollar strength/yen weakness) rose to the 153.20 exchange rate to close the week and is now at the highest level since June of 1990. The USD/JPY is up by almost 9 percent since the beginning of the year and has prompted warnings that the BOJ may look to intervene to halt their fast-sliding currency.


Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & British Pound

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (100 percent) and the British Pound (72 percent) lead the currency markets this week. Bitcoin (64 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Swiss Franc (0 percent), the Japanese Yen (0 percent), the US Dollar Index (2 percent), the Australian Dollar (14 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (2.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (0.9 percent)
EuroFX (34.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (27.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (72.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (82.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (0.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (13.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (0.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (20.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (14.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (16.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (13.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (4.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (21.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (39.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (100.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (97.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (30.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (30.0 percent)
Bitcoin (64.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (68.8 percent)


Bitcoin & Mexican Peso top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Bitcoin (27 percent) and the Mexican Peso (23 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies and are the only two markets with positive trends this week.

The New Zealand Dollar (-67 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-44 percent), Swiss Franc (-44 percent) and the Brazilian Real (-26 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-6.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-7.3 percent)
EuroFX (-12.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-21.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-12.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-1.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (-20.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-15.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (-43.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-27.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-43.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-42.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (-11.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-18.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-67.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-40.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (22.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (18.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (-26.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-25.8 percent)
Bitcoin (27.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (34.0 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,142 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 754 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,896 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:66.122.78.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:68.923.85.1
– Net Position:-1,142-4301,572
– Gross Longs:26,7339,1943,617
– Gross Shorts:27,8759,6242,045
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.599.729.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.86.13.9

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 32,723 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 15,929 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,794 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.359.511.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.267.68.7
– Net Position:32,723-52,03219,309
– Gross Longs:175,419383,11475,049
– Gross Shorts:142,696435,14655,740
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):34.269.79.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.814.2-12.3

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 28,252 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -15,162 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,414 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.945.513.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.558.313.7
– Net Position:28,252-27,055-1,197
– Gross Longs:80,00096,19627,814
– Gross Shorts:51,748123,25129,011
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.8 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):72.030.555.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.013.7-12.6

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -162,151 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -18,921 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -143,230 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.667.615.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:64.519.214.1
– Net Position:-162,151156,9425,209
– Gross Longs:47,275219,25650,941
– Gross Shorts:209,42662,31445,732
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 13.5 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.098.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-20.717.914.1

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -31,764 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,394 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,370 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.371.210.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:53.318.328.5
– Net Position:-31,76448,083-16,319
– Gross Longs:16,62664,6659,535
– Gross Shorts:48,39016,58225,854
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 13.9 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.03.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-43.743.2-20.9

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -53,385 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,162 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,223 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.066.314.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.736.116.7
– Net Position:-53,38558,340-4,955
– Gross Longs:34,741127,94427,190
– Gross Shorts:88,12669,60432,145
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.8 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):14.387.911.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-43.636.8-15.3

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -92,341 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,344 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102,685 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.672.510.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:58.823.814.8
– Net Position:-92,341101,610-9,269
– Gross Longs:30,556151,42121,567
– Gross Shorts:122,89749,81130,836
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 13.0 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.788.530.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.98.63.4

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -13,547 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,019 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,528 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.470.25.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:48.541.49.9
– Net Position:-13,54716,239-2,692
– Gross Longs:13,72639,5152,862
– Gross Shorts:27,27323,2765,554
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.7 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.980.319.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-67.070.0-65.2

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 139,691 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,961 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 133,730 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:61.335.92.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.282.61.0
– Net Position:139,691-144,4534,762
– Gross Longs:189,880111,1587,836
– Gross Shorts:50,189255,6113,074
– Long to Short Ratio:3.8 to 10.4 to 12.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.041.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:22.5-21.7-2.0

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,616 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 645 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,261 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:61.431.96.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:66.231.02.4
– Net Position:-2,6165312,085
– Gross Longs:33,44017,3843,418
– Gross Shorts:36,05616,8531,333
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):30.867.853.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-26.225.70.2

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -153 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -313 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 160 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:81.15.35.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:81.68.22.4
– Net Position:-153-838991
– Gross Longs:23,5721,5441,699
– Gross Shorts:23,7252,382708
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.6 to 12.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):64.143.435.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:27.3-45.8-0.4

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Australian dollar struggles amid robust US economic data

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The AUD/USD pair remains under pressure, hovering around 0.6528 on Friday. Earlier this week, the Australian dollar faced significant challenges, with a sharp decline against the USD. Efforts to stabilise the exchange rate have seen limited success thus far.

The stronger-than-expected economic data from the US has dampened hopes for extensive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. The capital market currently anticipates only a 40-basis point reduction, a downgrade from the 60-75 basis points expected at the start of the week.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is considering initiating its monetary easing policies towards the end of 2024. However, Australia’s robust employment market and persistent consumer inflation complicate these plans. Recent data indicates that the unemployment rate dropped to 3.7% in February, the lowest since September 2023, while inflation remained steady at 3.4% for the third consecutive month.

A recent Westpac report highlights the RBA’s need for greater confidence in the inflation outlook before seriously contemplating a rate cut.

Technical analysis of AUD/USD

On the H4 chart, the AUD/USD is developing the fifth wave of decline towards 0.6832. The market has recently experienced a decline to 0.6498. A consolidation range is forming above this level today. If the pair exits this range upward, a corrective move to 0.6570 may occur. Conversely, a downward exit could lead to the continuation of the downward wave towards 0.6404. The MACD indicator supports this bearish outlook, with its signal line above zero but trending downwards sharply.

The H1 chart shows a consolidation around 0.6523. An upward breakout could lead to a correction towards 0.6570. A downward move from the range could initiate a further decline to 0.6420, potentially extending to 0.6404. The Stochastic oscillator, currently below 20, suggests a possible rise to 50, indicating potential short-term corrections within a broader downward trend.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.