Author Archive for InvestMacro – Page 2

23 Apr

Is a Commodities Super Cycle on the Way?

Source: Streetwise Reports (4/19/24)

Are we at the start of a commodities supercycle? We sat down with McAlinden Research to see what they had to say about the current state of commodities.

McAlinden Research Partners is a global provider of original investment strategy insights. The company’s primary goal is to pinpoint profitable investment opportunities in their early stages and promptly inform their clients about these potential avenues for growth. Its founder, Joseph J. McAlinden, has over five decades of experience in the research and investment space.

With this in mind, we at Streetwise thought it would be good to sit down with some of the McAlinden team to get their take on what is currently going on in the commodities market.

First, we discussed current trends in the commodities space.

The McAlinden team told us, “In the stock market, we have a super bull market. That is not showing any signs of letting up.” However, when it comes to commodities, the market is a mixed bag. They pointed out that some commodities, such as cocoa, have soared while others, like lumber, have been struggling.

AI and Y2K

In terms of a parallel, the McAlinden team said, “Market cycles don’t repeat, but they do rhyme,” and this reminded them a bit of the late 90s and early 2000s. People thought the world was going to end with Y2K, which led to high revenue in technology companies. However, once the world realized the sky wasn’t falling, it led to a major correction.

The McAlinden team compared this to the current excitement surrounding AI. Eventually, the market will learn if AI has lived up to the hype.

Was it as scary as everyone predicted?

Maybe it won’t be as advanced as we had previously thought, and when that happens, corrections will be made like with technology during Y2K.

A Geopolitically Influenced Market

Now, the McAlinden team explained that commodities are influenced by similar fears and movements in the world. They said, “Throughout history, you see that commodities are very heavily impacted, more impacted by geopolitics than equities.”

For example, OPEC’s oil embargoes significantly impacted the prices of oil in the 1970s, and this alliance of oil producers continues to have a profound impact on the price of energy commodities today.

“Now, within OPEC, or this OPEC+Syndicate, you have countries like Russia and Saudi Arabia, which are both countries within or right on the edge of war zones,” the McAlinden team explained. “They depend . . .  the free movement of trade that is subject to a lot of risk. And that is definitely pushing up some of the commodity prices, particularly in energy.”

Still, the team made it a point to note that they don’t believe we are at the beginning of a commodities super cycle yet, though “we may get there in the next couple of years.”

Though the team pointed out that there has been a lot of chatter about “worst-case scenarios,” that is not what has happened yet.

“There’s been a lot of chances [where we thought] this could get really bad, this could  spiral out of control, but for the most part, the state actors have been pretty rational in trying to avoid these cataclysmic events that might create something like a supercycle.”

They continued, “I think that that has saved the world. [Still] there’s only so many times you can really go right up to the edge of that risk cliff and not end up falling into it. And that’s what you always have to be looking out for in commodities.”

Still, the team made it a point to note that they don’t believe we are at the beginning of a commodities super cycle yet, though “we may get there in the next couple of years.”

Once this happens, almost all commodities could appreciate in value simultaneously, but right now, they are still mixed and dependent on a myriad of factors, including geopolitics and weather.

Closer and Closer to a Recession

We then went on to discuss the current state of inflation, as commodities are also affected by this.

The McAlinden team said, “The Fed suggested they were going to cut [interest rates] three times, and traders basically ignored that, and we’re talking six or seven cuts . . . the data for the year started to show sticky inflation, and strong employment at the headline level; however, this was a bit misleading . . . there are reasons to expect inflation to improve, but [we] doubt it is going to happen in the next six months.”

When asked about the misleading nature of the employment readings, the McAlinden team turned to current headlines regarding increased job creation in the U.S. Though the most recent reports show that job growth is beating the highest estimates of economists, this does not take into account the impact of part-time / contract work accounting for the entire net increase in payrolls over the past several months. So, while job creation is accelerating, full-time work is not.

The Biden White House has succeeded in bringing down CO2 emissions to their target level, but that has come at the expense of higher oil prices because of a lack of investment.

A small part of this is the emphasis among the young workforce to enter the so-called “gig economy.” More and more working millennials and Gen Z are leaning toward freelance and contract work rather than full-time employment.

A larger aspect, according to McAlinden’s team, is “this wave of immigration that the United States is experiencing right now, which is starting to inflate the supply of labor.” People are coming to the United States to gain work visas. However, many of these workers tend to end up in part-time work. ” The number of part-time workers is exploding, but the number of full-time workers is falling, and it’s falling at a rate we haven’t seen in some time.”

This is leading us closer and closer to a recession.

The Impact of the 2024 Election

Commodities are often influenced by federal policies. With this in mind, we spoke about how commodities may be impacted based on the results of the 2024 election. The current candidates are incumbent Democrat Joseph Biden and Republican nominee Donald Trump.

“The outcome of the election will be important,” the McAlinden team told Streetwise.

Oil is one commodity in particular that may be affected. “Trump is essentially running on this drill, baby drill mantra,” they said. “One of his big campaign points is that [energy companies are]  going to drill more when he’s president . . . despite the fact that we have seen oil kind of go up to record highs, it’s only slightly higher than where we were going back to 2020. Back in 2020, production was at 13.1 million barrels, which was the record . . . Today, we’re [still] only at 13.1 million barrels. We were at 13.3 a couple of months ago.”

“If Trump was to win [that would be] bearish for oil prices because, if production is up, we’re going to see prices come down,” they explained.

This is largely because “The Biden White House’s Interior Department is very hostile to oil companies, and oil companies don’t really feel very comfortable investing a whole lot in North America right now because of the administration. So one president is saying drill, baby drill, the other is very concerned about climate change.

The Biden White House has succeeded in bringing down CO2 emissions to their target level, but that has come at the expense of higher oil prices because of a lack of investment, a lack of . . . leasing federal land to  [energy] companies, and things like that. So, there definitely will be commodity implications from the election. And we think that really is going to be pronounced in energy commodities.”

All in all, the current policies in today’s White House and the policies Trump’s administration will put in place if he is elected may be significantly different.

“If Trump was to win [that would be] bearish for oil prices because, if production is up, we’re going to see prices come down,” they explained.

The Weakening of the US Dollar

Another factor in a possible commodities supercycle is the status of the U.S. dollar.

“We’ve seen the dollar remain very strong over the past couple of years. It’s weakened a little bit since 2022 when the dollar index broke 20-year highs, but when the dollar depreciates versus other currencies, commodities tend to benefit from that since . . . commodities are priced in dollars.”

 If the Federal Reserve stays tight and keeps the dollar strong, that’s probably not so good for commodities.

This will allow other countries to buy even more commodities as their local currencies will be able to purchase more product in dollar terms.

They continued, “The path of commodities will be heavily influenced by what the United States Federal Reserve does. If the Federal Reserve stays tight and keeps the dollar strong, that’s probably not so good for commodities.

However, if the Fed is as dovish as everyone else or more dovish (it doesn’t look like it’s gonna be the case right now), that would weaken the dollar and would probably be good for commodities, assuming that there’s not some major economic downturn that’s causing those rates to come down like that.”

ETFs

In summation, it looks like we are not yet at the starting line of the commodities super cycle, but we may get there in the next couple of years. With this in our back pocket, we asked the McAlinden team if they had any ETFs they thought might be impacted.

“Unfortunately, things have gotten harder for equity investors trying to acquire commodities exposure,” they said. “Last year, 21 commodity ETNs were actually closed out by Barclays.” These covered most commodities across the board, and some of the pure plays that just focused on one commodity, like cocoa, had been some of the highest returning ones.”

Still, the team had a handful of solid commodity-focused ETFs they were looking at.

 Invesco’s family of funds is one of these that covered a pretty broad allocation of commodities.

Another is  Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC:NYSEARCA), though McAlindnen shared more segmented ETFs such as Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (DBA:NYSEARCA) for ags as well.

“These are the kinds of the products that we’re looking at to represent the performance of some kind of ideas that we might highlight as themes at some point,” they said.

Continuing on with their list, they shared mining ETFs such as Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX:NYSEARCA) and VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX:NYSEARCA:).

As for energy, they pointed out Invesco DB Oil Fund (DBO:NYSEARCA), Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE:NYSEARCA), and Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (URNM:NYSEARCA).

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. Katherine DeGilio wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.
  2.  This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

McAlinden Research Partners Disclosures
This report has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not an offer to buy/sell/endorse or a solicitation of an offer to buy/sell/endorse Interests or any other security or instrument or to participate in any trading or investment strategy. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is made or can be given with respect to the sequence, accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information in this Report. Unless otherwise noted, all information is sourced from public data.
McAlinden Research Partners is a division of Catalpa Capital Advisors, LLC (CCA), a Registered Investment Advisor. References to specific securities, asset classes and financial markets discussed herein are for illustrative purposes only and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. CCA, MRP, employees and direct affiliates of the firm may or may not own any of the securities mentioned in the report at the time of publication.

Energy Opinions
23 Apr

Are tomorrow’s engineers ready to face AI’s ethical challenges?

By Elana Goldenkoff, University of Michigan and Erin A. Cech, University of Michigan 

A chatbot turns hostile. A test version of a Roomba vacuum collects images of users in private situations. A Black woman is falsely identified as a suspect on the basis of facial recognition software, which tends to be less accurate at identifying women and people of color.

These incidents are not just glitches, but examples of more fundamental problems. As artificial intelligence and machine learning tools become more integrated into daily life, ethical considerations are growing, from privacy issues and race and gender biases in coding to the spread of misinformation.

The general public depends on software engineers and computer scientists to ensure these technologies are created in a safe and ethical manner. As a sociologist and doctoral candidate interested in science, technology, engineering and math education, we are currently researching how engineers in many different fields learn and understand their responsibilities to the public.

Yet our recent research, as well as that of other scholars, points to a troubling reality: The next generation of engineers often seem unprepared to grapple with the social implications of their work. What’s more, some appear apathetic about the moral dilemmas their careers may bring – just as advances in AI intensify such dilemmas.

Aware, but unprepared

As part of our ongoing research, we interviewed more than 60 electrical engineering and computer science masters students at a top engineering program in the United States. We asked students about their experiences with ethical challenges in engineering, their knowledge of ethical dilemmas in the field and how they would respond to scenarios in the future.

First, the good news: Most students recognized potential dangers of AI and expressed concern about personal privacy and the potential to cause harm – like how race and gender biases can be written into algorithms, intentionally or unintentionally.

One student, for example, expressed dismay at the environmental impact of AI, saying AI companies are using “more and more greenhouse power, [for] minimal benefits.” Others discussed concerns about where and how AIs are being applied, including for military technology and to generate falsified information and images.

When asked, however, “Do you feel equipped to respond in concerning or unethical situations?” students often said no.

“Flat out no. … It is kind of scary,” one student replied. “Do YOU know who I’m supposed to go to?”

Another was troubled by the lack of training: “I [would be] dealing with that with no experience. … Who knows how I’ll react.”

Other researchers have similarly found that many engineering students do not feel satisfied with the ethics training they do receive. Common training usually emphasizes professional codes of conduct, rather than the complex socio-technical factors underlying ethical decision-making. Research suggests that even when presented with particular scenarios or case studies, engineering students often struggle to recognize ethical dilemmas.

‘A box to check off’

Accredited engineering programs are required to “include topics related to professional and ethical responsibilities” in some capacity.

Yet ethics training is rarely emphasized in the formal curricula. A study assessing undergraduate STEM curricula in the U.S. found that coverage of ethical issues varied greatly in terms of content, amount and how seriously it is presented. Additionally, an analysis of academic literature about engineering education found that ethics is often considered nonessential training.

Many engineering faculty express dissatisfaction with students’ understanding, but report feeling pressure from engineering colleagues and students themselves to prioritize technical skills in their limited class time.

Researchers in one 2018 study interviewed over 50 engineering faculty and documented hesitancy – and sometimes even outright resistance – toward incorporating public welfare issues into their engineering classes. More than a quarter of professors they interviewed saw ethics and societal impacts as outside “real” engineering work.

About a third of students we interviewed in our ongoing research project share this seeming apathy toward ethics training, referring to ethics classes as “just a box to check off.”

“If I’m paying money to attend ethics class as an engineer, I’m going to be furious,” one said.

These attitudes sometimes extend to how students view engineers’ role in society. One interviewee in our current study, for example, said that an engineer’s “responsibility is just to create that thing, design that thing and … tell people how to use it. [Misusage] issues are not their concern.”

One of us, Erin Cech, followed a cohort of 326 engineering students from four U.S. colleges. This research, published in 2014, suggested that engineers actually became less concerned over the course of their degree about their ethical responsibilities and understanding the public consequences of technology. Following them after they left college, we found that their concerns regarding ethics did not rebound once these new graduates entered the workforce.

Joining the work world

When engineers do receive ethics training as part of their degree, it seems to work.

Along with engineering professor Cynthia Finelli, we conducted a survey of over 500 employed engineers. Engineers who received formal ethics and public welfare training in school are more likely to understand their responsibility to the public in their professional roles, and recognize the need for collective problem solving. Compared to engineers who did not receive training, they were 30% more likely to have noticed an ethical issue in their workplace and 52% more likely to have taken action.

Over a quarter of these practicing engineers reported encountering a concerning ethical situation at work. Yet approximately one-third said they have never received training in public welfare – not during their education, and not during their career.

This gap in ethics education raises serious questions about how well-prepared the next generation of engineers will be to navigate the complex ethical landscape of their field, especially when it comes to AI.

To be sure, the burden of watching out for public welfare is not shouldered by engineers, designers and programmers alone. Companies and legislators share the responsibility.

But the people who are designing, testing and fine-tuning this technology are the public’s first line of defense. We believe educational programs owe it to them – and the rest of us – to take this training seriously.The Conversation

About the Author:

Elana Goldenkoff, Doctoral Candidate in Movement Science, University of Michigan and Erin A. Cech, Associate Professor of Sociology, University of Michigan

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Opinions Programming
23 Apr
coffee_beans

Robusta Coffee: hovers near record highs!

By ForexTime 

  • FXTM launches 10 new commodities
  • Robusta Coffee near all-time high
  • 2nd biggest gainer YTD in FXTM’s commodity universe
  • Prices ↑ over 35% since start of 2024
  • Key levels of interest at $4040, $4130 and $4280

FXTM’s new Robusta Coffee commodity is flirting near all-time highs!

Prices rallied to fresh records last week as fundamentals fuelled concerns over tight global supplies.

Note: Prices are trading roughly 4% away from all-time highs.

Before we take a deep dive into the world of Robusta coffee, here are the basics:

What is Robusta Coffee?

Robusta coffee bean is often used for expresso-based drinks and accounts for roughly 40% of the world’s coffee production.

What does FXTM’s Robusta Coffee track?

FXTM’s Robusta Coffee tracks the ICE US Robusta Coffee futures, the world benchmark for producers of Robusta coffee.

Coffee of this variety is grown mainly in Vietnam, Brazil, Indonesia, Uganda and India.

The lowdown…

Robusta coffee prices have been on a tear!

The commodity has gained over 35% since the start of 2024 thanks to fundamental forces.

Negative factors in the form of severe weather, aging trees and freight disruptions continue to fuel fears about a global shortage of this coffee variety.

This in turn has sparked panic buying by roasters, further fuelling Robusta’s upside gains.

The bigger picture

Vietnam is the world’s largest producer of Robusta, accounting for roughly 35% of global output.

Heatwaves and ageing trees are expected to hit crop yields, with concerns rising over possible water shortages for irrigation hurting output of the next season.

Brazil, the world’s second-largest producer of Robusta is also facing its trials. Adverse weather conditions are also threatening output, for the country that produces around 28% of global output.

Essentially, there are concerns over the amount of Robusta left in Brazil as the 2024 harvest approaches.

What does this mean?

A combination of negative factors continues to impact output from the world’s two largest producers of Robusta coffee.

This development could mean more gains for the commodity which is trading near all-time highs.

And…the technicals

Prices seem to be in a range on the H1 charts with support around $4130 and resistance at $4280.

Although the path of least resistance points north, a move lower could be on the cards before bulls jump back into the scene.

Potential support levels can be found at $4130, $4040 and $3980.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Opinions Soft Commodities
23 Apr

PMI data is the focus of investors’ attention today. Turkey, Iraq, Qatar, and UAE signed a transportation agreement

By JustMarkets

At Monday’s close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) was up 0.67%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.87%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 1.11%. The US stock indices rose moderately, with the Dow Jones Industrials Index hitting a 1-week high. Yesterday, reduced geopolitical tensions helped stocks rise, as the exchange of strikes between Iran and Israel may be temporarily halted. Additionally, Nvidia’s (NVDA) 4% gain on Monday helped tech stocks as Nvidia recovered some of the 10% drop from last Friday.

About 180 companies in the S&P 500 (US500), or more than 40% of total capitalization, are scheduled to report earnings this week, including four of the “Magnificent Seven” technology companies: Tesla (TSLA), Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta Platforms (META).

Equity markets in Europe mostly went up yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.70%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.22%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 1.50%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 1.62%.

The gold price held near $2,300 per ounce on Tuesday, near a three-week low, amid easing fears of widening conflict in the Middle East. Investors scaled back investments in safe-haven assets in favor of riskier ones after Tehran downplayed the significance of a retaliatory Israeli drone strike on Iran aimed at easing tensions.

Turkey, Iraq, Qatar, and the UAE signed a transportation agreement to connect the Persian Gulf to Europe. The memorandum obliges the signatories to create the conditions for the project’s implementation. The project aims to create a 1,200-kilometer road and railroad connecting the Persian Gulf to Turkey via Iraq.

The US approved new sanctions against Iran’s oil sector in the oil market, targeting shippers and refiners of Iranian crude. This led to a slight rise in oil prices on Tuesday. The fundamental and geopolitical situation will keep oil above $80 per barrel in the coming weeks.

Asian markets were predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 1.00%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) decreased by 0.09% for the day, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up 1.77%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 1.08%.

Singapore’s annual inflation rate for March 2024 slowed to 2.7% from 3.4% in the previous month, below market expectations of 3.1%. This is the lowest rate since September 2021, as inflation declined across most sub-indices.

The Australian dollar climbed to $0.645, hitting a one-week high, as investors reacted to April’s solid Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reports. The data showed that private sector growth in Australia increased by the most in 2 years in April as manufacturing activity approached breakeven levels, while service sector activity remained active for the third consecutive month. The latest data supports the view that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may keep interest rates on hold longer to counter inflationary pressures. Some analysts also suggest that the RBA may raise rates again in the second half of 2024 due to rising activity. Investors are awaiting the country’s inflation data to be released later this week.

The latest PMI data in Japan showed that manufacturing activity was close to stable in April, while service sector activity rose the most in 11 months. Investors look forward to the Bank of Japan’s policy decision later this week. The BOJ is pressured to raise rates again because of steady inflation and a weakening yen. Still, the Central Bank has signaled that it will maintain favorable monetary conditions for some time.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,010.60 +43.37 (+0.87%)

Dow Jones (US30) 38,239.98 +253.58 (+0.67%)

DAX (DE40) 17,860.80 +123.44 (+0.70%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,023.87 +128.02 (+1.62%)

USD Index 106.13 −0.02 (−0.02%)

Important events today:
  • – Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Singapore Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 08:00 (GMT+3);
  • – German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
  • – German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
  • – US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
  • – US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
23 Apr

Australian dollar rises on strong economic indicators

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The AUD/USD pair is experiencing upward momentum for the second consecutive day, reaching a one-week high near 0.6453 on Tuesday. This positive movement comes after a period of rapid decline and is supported by encouraging economic data from Australia.

The latest manufacturing PMI report for April significantly contributed to the Australian dollar’s appreciation. It showed an increase to 49.9 points, up from 47.3 the previous month. This improvement brings the manufacturing sector close to the critical 50.0 threshold, distinguishing between the industry’s growth and contraction. Additionally, the services PMI reported the most robust expansion in the last three months, and the private sector experienced its fastest growth in two years during April.

These robust economic reports not only indicate a resilient economy but also carry pro-inflationary implications. They bolster the outlook that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may maintain higher interest rates for an extended period to manage inflationary pressures effectively.

Investors will also pay attention to the upcoming release of inflation statistics later in the week, which will provide further insights into the economic factors influencing the RBA’s monetary policy decisions.

Moreover, the Australian dollar’s gains were further supported by a reduction in investor concerns over geopolitical risks in the Middle East, contributing to a more favourable risk environment.

Technical analysis of AUD/USD

On the H4 chart, the AUD/USD pair completed a declining wave to 0.6362. A corrective movement towards 0.6471 is underway. Upon completion of this correction, a continuation of the downward trend towards 0.6300 is anticipated. The MACD indicator supports this bearish outlook despite its signal line being above zero, which typically suggests growth potential.

On the H1 chart, a consolidation range has been formed around 0.6417. A breakout above this range could lead to a rise towards 0.6471. Following this peak, a new downward wave to 0.6363 is expected. Breaking below this level may pave the way to reach 0.6300. The Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line currently below 80 and pointing downwards, confirms this potential downward trajectory.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
22 Apr

Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are declining. China kept interest rates at lows

By JustMarkets

On Friday, the Dow Jones (US30) Index gained 0.56% (for the week -0.23%), while the S&P 500 (US500) Index fell by 0.88% (for the week -3.54%). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 2.05% (for the week -6.11%). The S&P 500 (US500) fell to a one-month low, and the NASDAQ (US100) fell to a 2-month low. Weak corporate news and rising geopolitical risks weighed on stocks.

The latest escalation in the Israeli-Iranian conflict (an Israeli drone attack on Isfahan in Iran) caused risk assets to fall sharply across all markets. But Iran later said it had “no immediate plans” to retaliate, hoping to pull both sides back from the brink of full-scale conflict. That helped cushion the decline somewhat at last week’s indices close.

On Friday, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee’s hawkish comments supported the dollar when he said that inflation progress has stalled in 2024. It makes sense to wait and get more clarity before cutting interest rates. So, markets now expect the Central Bank to hold rates steady until September and to make no more than one rate cut this year. That’s an optimistic scenario for the US dollar.

Netflix (NFLX) shares fell more than 8% after the company projected second-quarter revenue below consensus. Demand concerns are weighing on chip stocks after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSM), the world’s largest maker of advanced chips, lowered its expectations for semiconductor market growth this year to 2024.

The House of Representatives quickly approved $95 billion in foreign aid for Ukraine, Israel, and other US allies in a rare Saturday session as Democrats and Republicans united after months of stiff resistance from the right over renewed US support to repel a full-scale invasion by Russia.

Recent volatility in the Mexican peso (MXN) caused by rising tensions in the Middle East is no cause for concern over inflation, the governor of the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) said, amid expectations that the central bank will continue to be cautious in its upcoming monetary policy decision. The Mexican peso, considered by many to be a proxy for risk assets, fell the hardest on reports of rising tensions between Israel and Iran, though it later recovered most of that fall. The peso has been the best-performing primary currency over the past 12 months.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) was down 0.56% (for the week -1.12%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.01% (for the week -0.36%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.33% (for the week +0.57%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.24% (for the week -1.25%).

On Friday, ECB Governing Council spokesman Simkus said that the Eurozone can afford a less tight monetary policy and that the ECB’s three rate cuts this year align with the baseline. Thus, the European Central Bank intends to change its economic policy stance and cut interest rates soon. According to most ECB voting officials, the likely start date is the next meeting in June.

WTI crude futures fell to $81.5 a barrel on Monday, falling to four-week lows amid easing geopolitical concerns in the Middle East. Iran downplayed apparent Israeli strikes on its territory last week and said it had no plans to retaliate. Nevertheless, investors continued to watch the region. Iran is the third-largest producer in OPEC, and it exports most of its oil to China and other countries outside the US financial system.

Asian markets were mostly up last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 5.09%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was little changed in price for the week, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell 1.60%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 2.84%.

In China, the central bank kept the one-year and five-year lending rates at 3.45% and 3.95%, respectively, amid stronger-than-expected first-quarter GDP data and efforts to stabilize the yuan. On the other hand, both rates are at historic lows, reflecting the government’s concerted efforts to stimulate economic growth amid challenges in the real estate sector and persistent deflationary pressures. Investors now await the Bank of Japan’s policy decision later this week.

In Australia, markets are betting that the central bank will start cutting rates later this year. Investors digested data that the country’s unemployment rate rose to 3.8% in March from 3.7% in February, confirming a dovish view on the country’s monetary policy. Investors now await Australia’s first-quarter and March inflation data this week for more clarity on the policy path.

S&P 500 (US500) 4,967.23 −43.89 (−0.88%)

Dow Jones (US30) 37,986.40 +211.02 (+0.56%)

DAX (DE40) 17,737.36 −100.04 (−0.56%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,895.85 +18.80 (+0.24%)

USD Index 106.12 −0.03 (−0.03%)

Important events today:
  • – China PBoC Loan Prime Rate (m/m) at 04:15 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 18:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
22 Apr

Brent crude dips to four-week low amid easing geopolitical tensions

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Brent crude oil prices fell to a four-week low of 86.50 USD on Monday, influenced by several contributing factors. The primary cause of the decline was a reduction in geopolitical tensions as Iran’s rhetoric toward Israel showed signs of de-escalation. This change is significant given that Iran is the third-largest OPEC oil producer, with substantial exports to China and other countries, making stability in the region crucial for global oil markets.

On the demand side, US crude oil inventories rose 2.7 million barrels for the week, nearly double what was anticipated. This unexpected increase has put additional pressure on oil prices.

Furthermore, global economic uncertainties and concerns that the Federal Reserve may maintain elevated interest rates for an extended period also impact the outlook for oil demand. Heightened interest rates tend to strengthen the US dollar, making oil, priced in dollars, more expensive for holders of other currencies. However, the current stability of the US dollar is providing some support, preventing even steeper declines in oil prices.

Technical analysis of Brent

On the H4 chart, Brent established a consolidation range at around 87.87. The downward breakout from this range initiated a correction wave to 84.48. After reaching this target, the market may see a rebound towards 92.00, potentially continuing towards 95.00. This bullish scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, currently below zero, suggesting that the lows may soon be updated.

The H1 chart shows that Brent is forming the fifth correction structure towards 84.48. Once this level is reached, there may be potential for a rebound to 87.87 (testing from below). A successful breakout from this range upward could lead to further growth towards 90.50, with a possible continuation to 92.00. The Stochastic oscillator, currently below 20, indicates readiness to initiate a new growth structure towards higher levels, supporting the possibility of an upward trend resuming after the correction.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Energy Financial News
22 Apr

Trade Of The Week: Are Ethereum ETF’s coming?

By ForexTime 

  • Bitcoin halving done and dusted
  • Ethereum in focus ahead of SEC decision
  • ETH ↓ 20% from 2024 peak
  • Prices trending higher on D1 chart
  • Key levels at 100 day SMA, $3255 and 50-day SMA

Bitcoin’s halving event is done and dusted! Marking a landmark moment in the world of digital assets.

This shifts our focus towards Ethereum which could be rocked by the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) looming decision to vote on Ethereum spot ETF applications.

The world’s second-largest cryptocurrency has shed over 20% from the 2024 high, though still up 40% year-to-date.

Fun fact: Ethereum hit an all-time high of $4866.4 in November 2021.

The lowdown 

One of the key forces supporting Ethereum in Q1 was growing anticipation over a green light from the SEC on May 23rd following the spot Bitcoin ETF approval in January.

Fast-forward to today, confidence has significantly declined over the SEC approving the ETF applications.

The bigger picture 

Just like we have seen with Bitcoin ETFs, the approval of an Ethereum ETF would increase exposure to the cryptocurrency.

It will provide easier and greater access to the world’s second-largest digital currency without having to own it – representing potential inflows of new investors.

Where we are now

Much has changed since the start of 2024 with the lack of engagement between the SEC and applicants sapping confidence over the possibility of an approval on May 23rd.

On top of this, recent news about the SEC investigating companies associated with the Ethereum Foundation adds another layer of uncertainty ahead of the decision.

A bright spot 

Hong Kong regulators have recently approved Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, marking another positive step towards mainstream acceptance.

Such a development could spark acceptance from other regulators in Asia and across the world.

What does this all mean?

In a nutshell, Ethereum prices could turn volatile over the next few weeks as the SEC decision looms.

Where there is volatility, this presents potential trading opportunities.

How to take advantage of this

There are 2 potential outcomes to the SEC’s spot ETF decision on May 23rd.

    1) SEC rejects all Ethereum ETF applications.

This seems to be the expected outcome for markets with the approval seen later in the year or even 2025. Nevertheless, the initial disappointment could hit Ethereum prices – capping upside gains from other forces.

    2) SEC approves Ethereum ETF applications.

This decision may catch markets by surprise, triggering an aggressive appreciation in Ethereum prices due to the prospects of fresh inflows from retail and institutional investors.

What about the technicals?

The technicals paint a mixed picture on the daily charts. Although Ethereum is respecting a bearish channel, support can be found at $2855 and the 100-day Simple Moving Average.

  • A solid breakout and daily close above $3255 may open a path toward the 50-day SMA at $3475 and $3724.
  • Should prices slip back below the 100-day SMA at $3063.8, this could open a path back towards $2855. A solid bearish move under $2855, could fuel a further selloff towards the 200-day SMA.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Cryptocurrencies Opinions
19 Apr

3 Signs of Developing U.S. Economic Slowdown

“Credit standards are tightening, thereby freezing out borrowers”

By Elliott Wave International

Recent headlines about the U.S. economy are rosy:

  • US economic growth for last quarter is revised up slightly to a healthy 3.4% annual rate (AP News, March 28)
  • US economy continues to shine with help from consumers, labor market (Reuters, March 28)

It’s all well and good to announce positive economic news. Yet, consumers of such news may not be getting the full story.

In other words, there’s plenty of less-than-positive economic developments, and I’ll point out just three which portend a possible economic contraction.

The first one has been well-advertised: the developing commercial real estate crisis. In a nutshell, office building owners face higher interest rates as their loans mature. This could set off a wave of defaults. Indeed, there’s already been a dramatic rise in the number of U.S. commercial property foreclosures in the past four years.

Another sign of a developing economic slowdown has to do with consumers. If you live in the U.S., quite a few of your neighbors — or at least residents of your community — are tapped out.

Here’s a chart from the March Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a monthly publication which covers major U.S. financial markets:

Credit Card Holders Are Strapped Too

As you can see, credit card delinquencies have been rising since 2022. Indeed, credit card arrears are higher than they’ve been since the wake of the Great Recession in 2007-2009.

And speaking of the Great Recession, sub-prime car loan delinquencies are even higher than they were then.

The March Elliott Wave Financial Forecast elaborates with this chart and commentary:

Subprime Car Loan Delinquency on the Rise

Car loan delinquencies are higher than at any time in the data’s history, which goes back to 1996. … Credit standards are tightening, thereby freezing out borrowers. … Access to auto credit is the lowest in nearly four years.

Also keep in mind that the economy follows the stock market.

If the stock market goes into a correction — or worse — expect the economy to weaken. History shows that there’s usually a few months lag time between the action of the stock market and economy.

Elliott wave analysis can help you get a handle on the stock market’s trend.

If you’re unfamiliar with the Elliott wave method, read Frost & Prechter’s Wall Street classic, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior. Here’s a quote from the book:

All waves are of a specific degree. Yet it may be impossible to identify precisely the degree of developing waves, particularly subwaves at the start of a new wave. Degree is not based upon specific price or time lengths but upon form, which is a function of both price and time. Fortunately, the precise degree is usually irrelevant to successful forecasting since it is relative degree that matters most. To know a major advance is due is more important than its precise name. Later events always clarify degree.

Get more insights into the Wave Principle by reading the entire online version of the book.

Learn more by following this link: Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior — get instant access.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline 3 Signs of Developing U.S. Economic Slowdown. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
19 Apr

Israel has retaliated against Iran. Investors run to safe assets

By JustMarkets

At Thursday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 0.06%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.22%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.1% yesterday. A rise in T bond yields on Thursday pressured stocks. Hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve pushed bond yields up and pressured stock indices when New York Fed President Williams and Atlanta Fed President Bostic said the Fed would not rush to cut interest rates. In addition, weakness in chip company stocks weighed on the overall market for the second session. Stocks found some support from Thursday’s US economic reports, which were mostly better than expected and bolstered the outlook for a soft landing.

The US weekly jobless claims were unchanged at 212,000, indicating a robust labor market. The Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index for April unexpectedly rose by 12.3 to a 2-year high of 15.5 vs. expectations of a decline to 2.0. The US home sales for March fell by 4.3% m/m to 4.19 million, slightly weaker than expectations of 4.20 million.

Tesla (TSLA) shares fell more than 3% and topped the NASDAQ (US100) losers list after Deutsche Banks downgraded the stock to “hold” from “buy.” Meta Platforms (META) is up more than 1% and led the NASDAQ (US100) risers after Moody’s Ratings Services upgraded the company’s senior unsecured debt rating to Aa3 from A1.

Geopolitical risks in the Middle East remain a negative factor for risk assets. On Friday morning, Israel retaliated against Iran following Tehran’s attack over the weekend. Notably, the attack was carried out on the birthday of Iranian leader Khamenei, who turns 85 today.

Bitcoin briefly dipped below the $60,000 mark on Friday before stabilizing around $61,000, hitting its lowest level in six weeks. Financial markets were swept by a wave of risky trades following reports that Israel had struck targets in Iran, Iraq, and Syria in response to Tehran’s attack on Israel over the weekend. Meanwhile, some analysts have argued that Bitcoin and other crypto-assets could provide an alternative store of value in times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Thursday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) added 0.38%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed up 0.52%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 1.23%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.37%.

Eurozone construction output rose by 1.8% m/m in February, the largest increase in a year. In their monthly report, the Bundesbank upgraded their assessment of the German economy and said that a “slight increase” in growth is possible in Q1, an improvement from March when they forecast the economy to contract in Q1. ECB executive board spokesman de Guindos said yesterday that if there is increased confidence among ECB officials that the 2% inflation target will be met, reducing the current level of monetary policy restriction would be appropriate. His counterpart, ECB Governing Council spokesman Holzmann, said a majority vote in June would likely favor an ECB rate cut.

WTI crude futures jumped about 2% above $84 a barrel on Friday, recovering most of the losses suffered earlier in the week following reports of large explosions in Iran, Iraq, and Syria suspected to have been attacked by Israel. The reimposition of US sanctions on Venezuelan oil and potential new EU restrictions on Iran will continue to drive oil markets higher.

Asian markets were predominantly rising yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) added 0.13%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.52%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.03%, while Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.40%.

Malaysia’s economy grew 3.9% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024, accelerating from the 3.0% growth in the previous period. This is the economy’s fastest growth in a year, driven by positive contributions from all sectors, led by the services sector (4.4% vs. 4.2% in Q4).

In a trilateral statement, the US, Japan, and South Korea said they will continue close consultations on currency market developments, recognizing the serious concerns of Japan and Korea about the recent sharp depreciation of their currencies. In its semi-annual report on the financial system, the Bank of Japan noted that financial conditions at companies are improving, and companies are generally quite resilient to stress. Many Japanese companies have sufficient profitability to withstand rising interest rates. Swaps estimate the odds of a 10 bps rate hike by the BoJ at 1% for the April 26 meeting and 39% for the next meeting on June 14.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,011.12 −11.09 (−0.22%)

Dow Jones (US30) 37,775.38 +22.07 (+0.058%)

DAX (DE40) 17,837.40 +67.38 (+0.38%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,877.05 +29.06 (+0.37%)

USD Index 105.86 -0.09 (-0.09%)

Important events today:
  • – Japan National Core Consumer Price Index at 02:30 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – German Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
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