Archive for December 2018

SPY looking to finish week higher after bouncing off 200-Week MA

SPY ETF is currently up for the week after a dramatic fall over the last ten days. The SPY has dipped into our oversold territory for the first time since February 2016 but found support this week at the 200-Week Moving Average (red line above). #stocks #spy #investing #stockmarket #sp500 #invest

30-Year Bond Yield ending the week around the 3% level

The 30-Year Bond yield has fallen over 12% or approximately 340+ basis points since reaching a multi-year high in late October. That level at 3.46% was the highest yield since June 2014. #30-year-bond #bonds #countingpips #macro #investing

Large Currency Speculators trim USD Index bullish bets, raise GBP bearish bets

December 22nd – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

US Dollar Index Speculator Positions

Large currency speculators lowered their bullish net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week while also adding to their British pound bearish positions, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 36,049 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday December 18th. This was a weekly decrease of -2,073 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,122 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position declining by -3,362 contracts to a weekly total of 43,298 contracts compared to the gross bearish position which saw a decrease by just -1,289 contracts for the week to a total of 7,249 contracts.

The USD Index speculative position has now declined for five consecutive weeks and has dipped to the lowest bullish level since September 11th of this year.


Individual Currencies Data this week:

In the other major currency contracts data, we saw four substantial changes (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the speculators category this week.

British pound sterling bets dropped sharply by over -18,000 contracts this week and have fallen for three straight weeks. The current standing is now at the most bearish level since September 25th when the net position totaled -67,078 contracts.

Mexican peso bets dropped by over -10,000 bets this week and for the second time in the past three weeks. The speculative position has now flipped over to a net bearish level for the first time since June 26th.

New Zealand dollar bets strongly jumped this week by over +18,000 contracts and have now gone back into an overall bullish position. This is the first time speculators have been bullish on the NZD since June 12th.

Australian dollar speculators continued to reduce their bearish bets this week and trimmed the position by over +10,000 contracts this week. Speculative bets have now improved seven straight weeks and by a total of +35,343 contracts. The Aussie spec level is at the least bearish position since June 12th of this year.

Overall, the major currencies that saw improving speculator positions this week were the euro (3,163 weekly change in contracts), Canadian dollar (4,212 contracts), Australian dollar (10,462 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (18,652 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week were the US dollar index (-2,073 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (-18,304 contracts), Japanese yen (-5,165 contracts), Swiss franc (-4,659 contracts),  and the Mexican peso (-12,211 contracts).

See the table and individual currency charts below.


Table of Large Speculator Levels & Weekly Changes:

CurrencyNet Speculator PositionSpecs Weekly Change
USD Index36,049-2,073
EuroFx-53,1243,163
GBP-60,723-18,304
JPY-102,771-5,165
CHF-22,926-4,659
CAD-7,4574,212
AUD-35,06910,462
NZD3,41118,652
MXN-769-12,211

 

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

 


Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

The Euro large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -53,124 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly change of 3,163 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,287 net contracts.


British Pound Sterling:

The large British pound sterling speculator level resulted in a net position of -60,723 contracts in the data reported this week. This was a weekly drop of -18,304 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,419 net contracts.


Japanese Yen:

Large Japanese yen speculators resulted in a net position of -102,771 contracts in this week’s data. This was a weekly reduction of -5,165 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -97,606 net contracts.


Swiss Franc:

The Swiss franc speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -22,926 contracts in the data through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,659 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,267 net contracts.


Canadian Dollar:

Canadian dollar speculators recorded a net position of -7,457 contracts this week. This was a gain of 4,212 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,669 net contracts.


Australian Dollar:

The large speculator positions in Australian dollar futures came in at a net position of -35,069 contracts this week in the data ending Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 10,462 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,531 net contracts.


New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand dollar speculative standing resulted in a net position of 3,411 contracts this week in the latest COT data. This was a weekly gain of 18,652 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,241 net contracts.


Mexican Peso:

Mexican peso speculators totaled a net position of -769 contracts this week. This was a weekly fall of -12,211 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,442 net contracts.


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

WTI Crude Oil Speculators cooled the decline of their bullish bets this week

December 22nd – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

WTI Crude Oil Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large energy speculators edged their bullish net positions very slightly higher in the WTI Crude Oil futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of WTI Crude Oil futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 309,608 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday December 18th. This was a weekly gain of 102 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 309,506 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position sliding by -1,869 contracts to a weekly total of 502,715 contracts compared to the gross bearish position which saw a decline by -1,971 contracts for the week to a total of 193,107 contracts.

The net speculative position had fallen for eleven straight weeks before this week’s minuscule turnaround. The current standing remains near the lowest bullish levels since November of 2016.

WTI Crude Oil Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -334,285 contracts on the week. This was a weekly loss of -3,333 contracts from the total net of -330,952 contracts reported the previous week.

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the WTI Crude Oil Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $46.60 which was a decrease of $-5.05 from the previous close of $51.65, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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10-Year Note Speculators trimmed their bearish bets

December 22nd – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large bond speculators decreased their bearish net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -380,779 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday December 18th. This was a weekly change of 13,023 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -393,802 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position rising by 23,223 contracts to a weekly total of 627,172 contracts that overtook the gross bearish position which saw an advance by 10,200 contracts for the week to a total of 1,007,951 contracts.

The speculative net bearish position retreated this week after two weeks of gaining bearish bets that pushed the bearish level to a five-week high. The current standing now remains under the -400,000 net contract level for a sixth straight week.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of 397,340 contracts on the week. This was a weekly loss of -16,840 contracts from the total net of 414,180 contracts reported the previous week.

10-Year Note Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 10-Year Note Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $120.85 which was an advance of $0.43 from the previous close of $120.42, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Gold Speculators continued to advance their bullish bets for 3rd week

December 22nd – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Gold Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators increased their bullish net positions in the Gold futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 75,960 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday December 18th. This was a weekly gain of 15,461 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 60,499 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position gaining by 12,568 contracts to a weekly total of 182,168 contracts compared to the gross bearish position which saw a decrease by -2,893 contracts for the week to a total of 106,208 contracts.

The net speculative position has now risen sharply for three straight weeks and by a total of 74,089 contracts over that period. The current speculator standing is now at the most bullish level since July 10th when the net position totaled 81,434 contracts.

Gold Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -92,675 contracts on the week. This was a weekly shortfall of -15,307 contracts from the total net of -77,368 contracts reported the previous week.

Gold Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Gold Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $1253.60 which was an advance of $6.40 from the previous close of $1247.20, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Bitcoin Speculators boosted their cryptocurrency bearish bets to 10-week high

December 22nd – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Bitcoin Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large cryptocurrency speculators raised their bearish net positions in the Bitcoin futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Bitcoin futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -1,342 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday December 18th. This was a weekly change of -429 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of -913 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position decreasing by -127 contracts to a weekly total of 2,100 contracts combined with the gross bearish position which saw a gain by 302 contracts for the week to a total of 3,442 contracts.

The speculative bearish position rose for the first time in four weeks and shot up to the highest bearish level in the past ten weeks.


Small Traders Positions:

The small traders, meanwhile, boosted their existing bullish bets by 404 contracts this week to a total of 1,581 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,177 net contracts.

The small trader standing is now at the best level since August 7th when the small trader net position reached 1,611 contracts.


Bitcoin Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -239 contracts on the week. This was a weekly change of 25 contracts from the total net of -264 contracts reported the previous week.

Commercial trader positions were just recently included in the data on November 27th and represent businesses using this market for hedging activities.


Bitcoin Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Bitcoin Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $3495 which was an advance of $175 from the previous close of $3320, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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S&P500 Mini Speculators pushed bullish bets higher earlier in the week

December 22nd – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

S&P500 Mini Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large stock market speculators continued to raise their bullish net positions in the S&P500 Mini futures markets for a second week this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of S&P500 Mini futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 210,266 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday December 18th. This was a weekly rise of 36,087 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 174,179 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position advancing by 42,111 contracts to a weekly total of 480,166 contracts compared to the gross bearish position which saw a small gain by 6,024 contracts for the week to a total of 269,900 contracts.

The latest data shows speculative bets that took place earlier in the week and do not include the selloff that happened as the week went on. The latest standing for spec positions rose above the +200,000 net contract level for the first time in three weeks.

S&P500 Mini Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -351,789 contracts on the week. This was a weekly drop of -73,019 contracts from the total net of -278,770 contracts reported the previous week.

S&P500 Mini Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the S&P500 Mini Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $2538.00 which was a decline of $-103.25 from the previous close of $2641.25, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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VIX Speculators upped their bullish bets for 2nd week

December 22nd – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

VIX Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large volatility speculators raised their bullish net positions in the VIX futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of VIX futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 44,245 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday December 18th. This was a weekly boost of 4,148 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,097 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position declining by -3,299 contracts to a weekly total of 140,508 contracts compared to the gross bearish position which saw a decline by -7,447 contracts for the week to a total of 96,263 contracts.

The net speculative position has gained by 33,228 net contracts over the last two weeks. The current standing is now at the most bullish level since April 17th when the net position was 77,951 contracts.

VIX Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -43,799 contracts on the week. This was a weekly shortfall of -6,138 contracts from the total net of -37,661 contracts reported the previous week.

VIX Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the VIX Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately 21.97 which was an advance of 1.50 from the previous close of 20.47, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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Silver Speculators raised their bullish bets for 3rd week to 5-month high

December 22nd – By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Silver Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metals speculators increased their bullish net positions in the Silver futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Silver futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 19,831 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday December 18th. This was a weekly increase of 8,575 net contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,256 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position growing by 2,887 contracts to a weekly total of 74,023 contracts combined with the gross bearish position which saw a decline by -5,688 contracts for the week to a total of 54,192 contracts.

The net speculative position has gained for three straight weeks and by a total of 30,797 contracts over that period. The current standing is now at the highest level since July 10th when the net position equaled 23,699 contracts.

Silver Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -35,476 contracts on the week. This was a weekly loss of -7,597 contracts from the total net of -27,879 contracts reported the previous week.

Silver Futures:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the Silver Futures (Front Month) closed at approximately $1470.10 which was an advance of $7.30 from the previous close of $1462.80, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

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